Modeling, simulation and analysis of group trampling risks during escalator transfers

The risks of group trampling during escalator transfers were studied in this paper. A state shifting model was proposed to describe the behaviors of a pedestrian during a group trampling accident. Based on the model, a group trample during escalator transfers was simulated from the beginning of the accident to the transfer recovery using the social force model. The impacts of 6 key factors were studied including the initial location of the accident, the time taken to invoke emergency measures, pedestrian velocity, escalator velocity, time taken for a fallen pedestrian to stand up, and pedestrian traffic. The results show that (1) when an accident happens in the transfer aisle, the peak number of pinned pedestrians is higher, while when it occurs near an escalator exit, the pressure exerted on the pinned pedestrians is more serious; (2) the speed of propagation of the accident is always faster than the recovery rate, and the earlier the emergency measures are taken, the less serious the accident is; (3) overall, except for the initial location of a trampling accident, which cannot be controlled, the other five factors have positive correlations with the severity of a group trampling accident, and can be descending ordered by their impacts using a regression analysis: early measures, pedestrian traffic, short standing-up delay, pedestrian velocity, and escalator velocity. These results can be referenced in the development of countermeasures to reduce group trampling risks.