Climatological relationships among the tropical cyclone frequency, duration, intensity and activity regions over the Western Pacific

Climatological relationships among the tropical cyclone (TC) frequency, duration, intensity and activity regions over the Western Pacific are explored based on long-term best track data. Frequent TC occurrence does not necessarily imply a long duration of TCs in the same periods. Three types of relationship between TC number and duration in the period 1945–2007 were identified in this study: low frequency and short duration during 1945–1955 (Period I); high frequency and short duration in the 1960s (Period II); and high frequency and long duration in the 1990s (Period III). TC activity regions differed among the three periods. During Period I, the main activity regions were over the ocean east of the Philippines (120°–140°E). During period II, two prevailing storm tracks extended west-northwest between 110° and 147°E. During period III, TCs had an extensive activity region from 110° to 160°E. TC intensity is related closely to activity regions. Most strong TCs developed over the ocean far from the Philippines, and had a northwestward track. Our results also show that the relationships between TC frequency, duration and their active regions are modulated strongly by broad-scale vertical motion, geopotential height and horizontal wind anomalies.

[1]  Chang‐Hoi Ho,et al.  Possible influence of the Antarctic Oscillation on tropical cyclone activity in the western North Pacific , 2005 .

[2]  Dennis L. Hartmann,et al.  Modulation of Eastern North Pacific Hurricanes by the Madden-Julian Oscillation , 2000 .

[3]  Christopher G. DesAutels,et al.  Environmental Control of Tropical Cyclone Intensity , 2004 .

[4]  Elizabeth A. Ritchie,et al.  Large-Scale Patterns Associated with Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western Pacific , 1999 .

[5]  J. Chan Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific in Relation to the Stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation , 1995 .

[6]  Bin Wang,et al.  How Strong ENSO Events Affect Tropical Storm Activity over the Western North Pacific(. , 2002 .

[7]  Tomonori Matsuura,et al.  Interdecadal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Activity in the Western North Pacific , 2001 .

[8]  Guanghua Chen Interdecadal variation of tropical cyclone activity in association with summer monsoon, sea surface temperature over the western North Pacific , 2009 .

[9]  Yuqing Wang,et al.  Tropical Cyclone Changes in the Western North Pacific in a Global Warming Scenario , 2007 .

[10]  J. Chan Interannual variations of intense typhoon activity , 2007 .

[11]  J. Chan,et al.  Decadal variations of intense typhoon occurrence in the western North Pacific , 2008, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[12]  J. Chan,et al.  Seasonal Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Activity over theWestern North Pacific and the South China Sea , 1998 .

[13]  P. Webster,et al.  Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment , 2005, Science.

[14]  P. Webster,et al.  Deconvolution of the Factors Contributing to the Increase in Global Hurricane Intensity , 2006, Science.

[15]  Relationship between the Asian-Pacific oscillation and the tropical cyclone frequency in the western North Pacific , 2008 .

[16]  E. Ritchie,et al.  Effects of Environmental Flow upon Tropical Cyclone Structure , 1999 .

[17]  Jian Sun,et al.  Relationships between the North Pacific Oscillation and the typhoon/hurricane frequencies , 2007 .

[18]  Meng Zhiyong,et al.  Recent progress on tropical cyclone research in China , 2002 .

[19]  J. Chan Tropical Cyclone Activity over the Western North Pacific Associated with El Niño and La Niña Events , 2000 .

[20]  K. Emanuel Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years , 2005, Nature.

[21]  Fan Ke New predictors and a new prediction model for the typhoon frequency over western North Pacific , 2007 .

[22]  R. Reynolds,et al.  The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis Project , 1996, Renewable Energy.

[23]  Botao Zhou,et al.  Hadley circulation signal in the tropical cyclone frequency over the western North Pacific , 2008 .

[24]  J. Chan,et al.  Long-term trends and interannual variability in tropical cyclone activity over the western North Pacific , 1996 .

[25]  P. Webster,et al.  Heightened tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic: natural variability or climate trend? , 2006, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[26]  G. Holland,et al.  Tropical Cyclone Motion and Evolution in Vertical Shear , 1996 .

[27]  J. Chan,et al.  Comment on "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment" , 2006, Science.

[28]  Peter J. Webster,et al.  Response to Comment on "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment" , 2006, Science.