Cell-to-cell variability in JAK2/STAT5 pathway components and cytoplasmic volumes define survival threshold in erythroid progenitor cells

Survival or apoptosis is a binary decision in individual cells. Yet, at the cell population level, a graded increase in survival of CFU-E cells is observed upon stimulation with Erythropoietin (Epo). To identify components of JAK2/STAT5 signal transduction that contribute to the graded population response, a cell population-level model calibrated with experimental data was extended to study the behavior in single cells. The single-cell model showed that the high cell-to-cell variability in nuclear phosphorylated STAT5 is caused by variability in the amount of EpoR:JAK2 complexes and of SHP1 as well as the extent of nuclear import due to the large variance in the cytoplasmic volume of CFU-E cells. 24 to 118 pSTAT5 molecules in the nucleus for 120 min are sufficient to ensure cell survival. Thus, variability in membrane-associated processes are responsible to convert a switch-like behavior at the single-cell level to a graded population level response. Highlights Mathematical modeling enables integration of heterogeneous data Single-cell modeling captures binary decision process Multiple sources of cell-to-cell variability in erythroid progenitor cells Minimal amount of active STAT5 sufficient for survival of erythroid progenitor cells