Modelling Plant Disease Epidemics

An epidemic is the progress of disease in time and space. Each epidemic has a structure whose temporal dynamics and spatial patterns are jointly determined by the pathosystem characteristics and environmental conditions. One of the important objectives in epidemiology is to understand such spatio-temporal dynamics via mathematical and statistical modelling. In this paper, we outline common methodologies that are used to quantify and model spatio-temporal dynamics of plant diseases, with emphasis on developing temporal forecast models and on quantifying spatial patterns. Several examples of epidemiological models in cereal crops are described, including one for Fusarium head blight.

[1]  L. R. Taylor,et al.  Aggregation, Variance and the Mean , 1961, Nature.

[2]  J. Plank,et al.  Plant Diseases: Epidemics and Control , 1964 .

[3]  A. C. Hildebrandt,et al.  Resistance to powdery mildew in rose , 1966 .

[4]  James G. Horsfall,et al.  EPIDEM; a simulator of plant disease written for a computer , 1969 .

[5]  C. Ingold,et al.  Fungus Spores, Their Liberation and Dispersal. , 1972 .

[6]  C. Ingold.  Role of mucilage in dispersal of certain fungi , 1978 .

[7]  R. May,et al.  Population biology of infectious diseases: Part I , 1979, Nature.

[8]  R. Fleming.  The potential for control of cereal rust by natural enemies , 1980 .

[9]  Dennis A. Johnson.  Effect of low temperature on the latent period of slow and fast rusting winter wheat genotypes. , 1980 .

[10]  M. Jeger,et al.  Disease progress of non‐specialised fungal pathogens in intraspecific mixed stands of cereal cultivars. II. Field experiments , 1981 .

[11]  J. Vanderplank.  Host-pathogen interactions in plant disease. , 1982 .

[12]  W. Fry,et al.  Models for the spread of disease: model description , 1983 .

[13]  J. R. Tomerlin,et al.  Temperature and Host Effects on Latent and Infectious Periods and on Urediniospore Production ofPuccinia reconditaf. sp.tritici , 1983 .

[14]  J. Tamsett.  The status of models in crop protection; an analysis using data base systems , 1983 .

[15]  W. Fry,et al.  Models for the Spread of Plant Disease: Some Experimental Results , 1983 .

[16]  A. Gutierrez.  A Model of Verticillium Wilt in Relation to Cotton Growth and Development , 1983 .

[17]  Christopher A. Gilligan,et al.  Mathematical modelling of crop disease. , 1985 .

[18]  J. W. Moyer,et al.  Two-dimensional distance class model for quantitative description of virus-infected plant distribution lattices , 1986 .

[19]  N. Lalancette,et al.  Disease progression as a function of plant growth , 1986 .

[20]  H. Geiger,et al.  A mathematical model of the epidemics in homogeneous and heterogenous host stands , 1987 .

[21]  H. A. Mccartney,et al.  Spore dispersal and plant disease gradients: a comparison between two empirical models , 1987 .

[22]  J. Metz,et al.  Focus expansion in plant disease. 1. The constant rate of focus expansion. , 1988 .

[23]  J. Correll.  Powdery Mildew of Tomato: The Effect of Planting Date and Triadimefon on Disease Onset, Progress, Incidence, and Severity , 1988 .

[24]  K. G. Rohrbach,et al.  Analysis of the spatial pattern of plant pathogens and diseased plants using geostatistics. , 1988 .

[25]  D. J. Royle,et al.  Relationships between leaf emergence and latent period for leaf rust (Puccinia hordei) on spring barley, and their significance for disease monitoring , 1988 .

[26]  R. Rabbinge,et al.  Combination models, crop growth and pests and diseases. , 1989 .

[27]  Adrian C. Newton,et al.  Measuring the sterol content of barley leaves infected with powdery mildew as a means of assessing partial resistance to Erysiphe graminis f.sp. hordei , 1989 .

[28]  C. Gilligan,et al.  Fitting of simple models for field disease progress data for the take‐all fungus , 1989 .

[29]  S. Leather,et al.  The unexpected element: mycovirus involvement in the outcome of two recent pandemics, Dutch elm disease and chestnut blight. , 1990 .

[30]  N. B. Kotliar,et al.  Multiple scales of patchiness and patch structure: a hierarchical framework for the study of heterogeneity , 1990 .

[31]  W. McGill,et al.  Comparison of ergosterol and chitin as quantitative estimates of mycorrhizal infection and Pinuscontorta seedling response to inoculation , 1990 .

[32]  A. Newton,et al.  Recurrent Selection for Adaptation of Erysiphe graminis f. sp. hordei to Partial Resistance and the Effect of Environment on Expression of Partial Resistance of Barley , 1991 .

[33]  T. Gillespie,et al.  Modeling Leaf Wetness in Relation to Plant Disease Epidemiology , 1992 .

[34]  E. Limpert,et al.  Origin and Proportions of the Components of Composite Populations of Erysiphe graminis f. sp. hordei , 1992 .

[35]  C. Gilligan,et al.  The effect of sowing date on infection of sugar beet by Polymyxa betae , 1992 .

[36]  C. L. Campbell,et al.  2DCLASS, a two-dimensional distance class analysis software for the personal computer , 1992 .

[37]  J. C. Zadoks,et al.  Studies in focus development: an optimum theorem for the dual dispersal of plant pathogens. , 1992 .

[38]  Laurence V. Madden,et al.  Aggregation and incidence of disease , 1992 .

[39]  G. Hughes,et al.  Using the beta-binomial distribution to describe aggregated patterns of disease incidence , 1993 .

[40]  F. Ferrandino,et al.  Dispersive epidemic waves. I: Focus expansion within a linear planting , 1993 .

[41]  T. Turkington,et al.  Use of petal infestation to forecast Sclerotinia stem rot of canola: the influence of inoculum variation over the flowering period and canopy density. , 1993 .

[42]  A. Genizi,et al.  Sclerotial survival and apothecial production by Sclerotinia sclerotiorum following outbreaks of lettuce drop. , 1993 .

[43]  I. Jamaux,et al.  Development of a polyclonal antibody‐based immunoassay for the early detection of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum in rapeseed petals , 1994 .

[44]  J. C. Zadoks,et al.  A geostatistical analysis of the spatio - temporal development of downy mildew epidemics in cabbage , 1994 .

[45]  R. Hall,et al.  Index of plant hosts of Sclerotinia sclerotiorum , 1994 .

[46]  T. Gottwald,et al.  Analysis of the spatial spread of sharka (plum pox virus) in apricot and peach orchards in eastern Spain. , 1995 .

[47]  X. Yang.  Analysis of Variance-Mean Relationships of Plant Diseases , 1995 .

[48]  Joe N. Perry,et al.  Spatial analysis by distance indices , 1995 .

[49]  P. Burrough.  Data Analysis in Community and Landscape Ecology: Spatial aspects of ecological data , 1995 .

[50]  Scot Nelson,et al.  Spatiotemporal distance class analysis of plant disease epidemics , 1995 .

[51]  L. Madden,et al.  Plant disease incidence: distributions, heterogeneity, and temporal analysis. , 1995, Annual review of phytopathology.

[52]  L. Huber,et al.  Comparative effect of temperature and interrupted wet periods on germination, penetration, and infection of Puccinia recondita f. sp. tritici and P. striiformis on wheat seedlings , 1995 .

[53]  T. Gottwald.  Spatio-temporal analysis and isopath dynamics of citrus scab in nursery plots , 1995 .

[54]  Laurence V. Madden,et al.  Cluster sampling for disease incidence data , 1996 .

[55]  C. Lefol,et al.  Immunofluorescent staining of sclerotinia ascospores on canola petals , 1996 .

[56]  J. Lacey.  Spore dispersal : its role in ecology and disease : the British contribution to fungal aerobiology , 1996 .

[57]  T. Gottwald,et al.  Spatial and temporal analyses of citrus tristeza virus in eastern Spain , 1996 .

[58]  G. Hepworth,et al.  Biocontrol of sclerotinia stem rot (Sclerotinia minor) in sunflower by seed treatment with Gliocladium virens , 1996 .

[59]  J. Holt,et al.  Spatial dynamics of a monocyclic disease in a perennial crop , 1996 .

[60]  W. E. Machardy,et al.  Apple Scab: Biology, Epidemiology, and Management , 1996 .

[61]  F. Ferrandino.  Length scale of disease spread : Fact or artifact of experimental geometry , 1996 .

[62]  J. Meynard,et al.  Influence of crop management on take-all development and disease cycles on winter wheat. , 1997, Phytopathology.

[63]  Roger Jones,et al.  Scab of Wheat and Barley: A Re-emerging Disease of Devastating Impact. , 1997, Plant disease.

[64]  Neil McRoberts,et al.  Validating mathematical models of plant-disease progress in space and time , 1997 .

[65]  H. A. Mccartney.  The influence of environment on the development and control of disease , 1997 .

[66]  Suranjan Panigrahi,et al.  Artificial neural network models of wheat leaf wetness , 1997 .

[67]  A. Obst,et al.  On The Etiology of Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat in South Germany - Preceding Crops, Weather Conditions for Inoculum Production and Head Infection, Proneness of The Crop to Infection and Mycotoxin Production , 1997 .

[68]  P. Teng,et al.  Modelling sheath blight epidemics on rice tillers , 1997 .

[69]  G. Gibson.  Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods for Fitting Spatiotemporal Stochastic Models in Plant Epidemiology , 1997 .

[70]  C. Campbell.  Disease progress in time: modelling and data analysis , 1998 .

[71]  Joe N. Perry,et al.  MEASURES OF SPATIAL PATTERN FOR COUNTS , 1998 .

[72]  M. Ridout,et al.  Effects of initial epidemic conditions, sporulation rate, and spore dispersal gradient on the spatio-temporal dynamics of plant disease epidemics. , 1998, Phytopathology.

[73]  Laurence V. Madden,et al.  A model for analysing plant-virus transmission characteristics and epidemic development , 1998 .

[74]  J. Yuen,et al.  Forecasting Sclerotinia stem rot in spring sown oilseed rape , 1998 .

[75]  M. Shaw.  Pathogen population dynamics , 1998 .

[76]  F. Ferrandino.  Past Nonrandomness and Aggregation to Spatial Correlation: 2DCORR, a New Approach for Discrete Data. , 1998, Phytopathology.

[77]  A. Maanen,et al.  Proportion of needles colonized by one fungal species in coniferous litter: the dispersal hypothesis , 1999 .

[78]  D. Firth,et al.  Estimating Intraclass Correlation for Binary Data , 1999, Biometrics.

[79]  A. Maanen,et al.  Balance between colonization and fructification in fungal dynamics control: a case study of Lophodermium pinastri on Pinus sylvestris needles , 2000 .

[80]  A. Newton,et al.  Assessment of epidemiological parameters and their use in epidemiological and forecasting models of cereal airborne diseases , 2000 .

[81]  M. Ridout,et al.  Relationships between several quadrat-based statistical measures used to characterize spatial aspects of disease incidence data. , 2000, Phytopathology.

[82]  D. Shtienberg,et al.  MODELLING: THE BASIS FOR RATIONAL DISEASE MANAGEMENT , 2000 .

[83]  A. Maanen,et al.  Distribution of three fungi colonising fallen Pinus sylvestris needles along altitudinal transects , 2000 .

[84]  Xiang-ming Xu,et al.  Effects of temperature on the incubation and latent periods of hawthorn powdery mildew (Podosphaera clandestina) , 2000 .

[85]  M. Jeger,et al.  Theory and plant epidemiology , 2000 .

[86]  C. Gilligan,et al.  Modelling the effect of temperature on the development of Polymyxa betae. , 2000 .

[87]  M. Ridout,et al.  Stochastic simulation of the spread of race‐specific and race‐nonspecific aerial fungal pathogens in cultivar mixtures , 2000 .

[88]  D. C. Harris,et al.  Spatio‐temporal dynamics of brown rot (Monilinia fructigena) on apple and pear , 2001 .

[89]  M. J. Jeger,et al.  The use of the area under the disease-progress curve (AUDPC) to assess quantitative disease resistance in crop cultivars , 2001, Theoretical and Applied Genetics.

[90]  Xu,et al.  Effects of prevailing wind direction on spatial statistics of plant disease epidemics , 2001 .

[91]  R. Vazquez-Duhalt,et al.  Effect of pollutants on the ergosterol content as indicator of fungal biomass. , 2002, Journal of microbiological methods.

[92]  L. Madden,et al.  Risk assessment models for wheat fusarium head blight epidemics based on within-season weather data. , 2003, Phytopathology.

[93]  Xiang-ming Xu.  Effects of Temperature on the Length of the Incubation Period of Rose Powdery Mildew (Sphaerotheca pannosa var. rosae) , 2004, European Journal of Plant Pathology.

[94]  P. Racca,et al.  A simulation model for the development of brown rust epidemics in winter wheat , 1997, European Journal of Plant Pathology.

[95]  G. Bateman,et al.  Development of Stem-base Pathogens on Different Cultivars of Winter Wheat Determined by Quantitative PCR , 2002, European Journal of Plant Pathology.

[96]  I. Vloutoglou,et al.  Periodicity and gradients in dispersal ofAlternaria linicola in linseed crops , 1995, European Journal of Plant Pathology.

[97]  P. Dyer,et al.  Development of apothecia ofTapesia yallundae in contrasting populations selected by fungicides , 1995, European Journal of Plant Pathology.

[98]  L. Madden,et al.  Spatial pattern analysis of the incidence of aster yellows disease in lettuce , 1995, Researches on Population Ecology.