Procedures for Using Expert Judgment in Risk Analysis

This chapter describes step by step procedures for the development of expert judgment data for probabilistic risk analysis. Many models for combining expert judgments can be found in the literature (for a survey see Cooke, 1991). However, consistent with recommendations to the Dutch Ministery of Housing, Physical Planning and Environment, and to the European Space Agency, only the so called Classical Model is recommended for implementation at this time. The development of expert judgment data is broken into nine phases, which are addressed in the corresponding sections of this chapter: 1. The problem identification phase 2. The expert identification phase 3. The expert choice phase 4. The question formulation phase 5. The calibration variable selection phase 6. The elicitation phase 7. The combination phase 8. The discrepancy analysis / feedback phase 9. The documentation phase