First and Second Order Analyses of Parameter Uncertainty in Drainage Design

ABSTRACT FIRST and second order analysis, a method of dealing with uncertainty, is applied to the design of an agricultural drainage system. Applications to both the conventional steady state design procedure based on Hooghoudt's formula and a nonsteady method based on Boussinesq's equation are presented. Examples are given that show how this method can provide the designer with an indication of the reliability of his estimates, a way of selecting a design to meet specified criteria with a specified probability of success, and a way of comparing the relative importance of uncertainty in the various input parameters.