Modeling of electric power demand growth. Final report

The development of a model is described for growth in demand for electric power. The emphasis is to develop a mathematical model that can be used for the analysis of detailed questions, such as: How will changes in air conditioning power demand, electric rate structures, population, etc., affect the daily load shapes (MW vs time) as weH as the peak power and the overall electric energy consumption. Detailed answers to these questions are needed for generation planning of capacity and plant mix (nuclear, fossil, and pumped-hydro) as well as for the evaluation of the resulting environmental and economic impacts. These issues require detailed models combining economic models with engineering considerations affecting the dynamics of load behavior. Modeling of this kind can be limited by the data available, and an important aspect of this effort is to identify the data required for a detailed understanding of the load. The approach to be employed is a combination of state space dynamic models driven by stochastic processes with econometric models. (GRA)