Physical and Economic Consequences of Sea-Level Rise: A Coupled GIS and CGE Analysis Under Uncertainties

This paper develops a modelling framework that links GEMINI-E3, a multi-regional, multi-sectoral computable general equilibrium model with a cost-benefit analysis approach at local level using geographical information system tools to assess the physical and economic consequences of sea-level rise (SLR) in the twenty first century. A set of future scenarios is developed spanning the uncertainties related to global warming, the parameters of semi-empirical SLR estimates, and coastal developments (cropland, urban areas and population). The importance of incorporating uncertainties regarding coastal development is highlighted. The simulation results suggest that the potential development of future coastal areas is a greater source of uncertainty than the parameters of SLR itself in terms of the economic consequences of SLR. At global level, the economic impact of SLR could be significant when loss of productive land along with loss of capital and forced displacement of populations are considered. Furthermore, highly urbanised and densely populated coastal areas of South East Asia, Australia and New Zealand are likely to suffer significantly if no protective measures are taken. Hence, it is suggested that coastal areas needs to be protected to ameliorate the overall welfare cost across various regions.

[1]  Heiko Jansen,et al.  The Planet Simulator: Towards a user friendly model , 2005 .

[2]  Alain Bernard,et al.  GEMINI-E3, a general equilibrium model of international–national interactions between economy, energy and the environment , 2008, Comput. Manag. Sci..

[3]  Chris J. Kennedy,et al.  The value of estuarine and coastal ecosystem services , 2011 .

[4]  R. Nicholls,et al.  The economic impact of substantial sea-level rise , 2010 .

[5]  W. Nordhaus.  Geography and macroeconomics: new data and new findings. , 2006, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[6]  Jim W Hall,et al.  Imprecise probability assessment of tipping points in the climate system , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[7]  Roberto Roson,et al.  Economy-wide Estimates of the Implications of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise , 2004 .

[8]  R. Tol.  Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change. Part 1: Benchmark Estimates , 2002 .

[9]  R. Tol,et al.  The double trade-off between adaptation and mitigation for sea level rise: an application of FUND , 2007 .

[10]  Sebastiaan N. Jonkman,et al.  Costs of Adapting Coastal Defences to Sea-Level Rise— New Estimates and Their Implications , 2013 .

[11]  S. Hanson,et al.  Economics of Coastal Zone Adaptation to Climate Change , 2010 .

[12]  R. Nicholls,et al.  Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a ‘beyond 4°C world’ in the twenty-first century , 2011, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.

[13]  R. Tol,et al.  Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise , 2001 .

[14]  Timothy M. Lenton,et al.  An efficient numerical terrestrial scheme (ENTS) for Earth system modelling , 2006 .

[15]  Martin Vermeer,et al.  Testing the robustness of semi-empirical sea level projections , 2012, Climate Dynamics.

[16]  C. Hope,et al.  The economic impact of extreme sea-level rise: Ice sheet vulnerability and the social cost of carbon dioxide , 2014 .

[17]  Trade and Sustainable Development: Spatial Distribution of Trade Policies Impacts on Agriculture , 2009 .

[18]  A. Cazenave,et al.  Sea-Level Rise and Its Impact on Coastal Zones , 2010, Science.

[19]  Frank Ackerman,et al.  Climate Economics: The State of the Art , 2013 .

[20]  D. Braaten,et al.  Risk of rising sea level to population and land area , 2007 .

[21]  R. Nicholls.  Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: a case study of flooding , 2002 .

[22]  I. Wing,et al.  Integrated Assessment of Climate Change Impacts: Conceptual Frameworks, Modelling Approaches and Research Needs , 2014 .

[23]  Cevdet Aykanat,et al.  Technical Report , 1978 .

[24]  A. Thomson,et al.  The representative concentration pathways: an overview , 2011 .

[25]  S. Joshi.  Impacts of climate change on heating and cooling: a worldwide estimate from energy and macro-economic perspectives , 2013 .

[26]  E. Stehfest,et al.  Harmonization of land-use scenarios for the period 1500–2100: 600 years of global gridded annual land-use transitions, wood harvest, and resulting secondary lands , 2011 .

[27]  F. Bosello,et al.  Climate Change, Sea Level Rise, and Coastal Disasters. A Review of Modeling Practices , 2014 .

[28]  R. Nicholls,et al.  Future flood losses in major coastal cities , 2013 .

[29]  Maryse Labriet,et al.  PLASIM-ENTSem v1.0: a spatio-temporal emulator of future climate change for impacts assessment , 2013 .

[30]  J. Gregory,et al.  A sea of uncertainty , 2010 .

[31]  R. Nicholls,et al.  A global analysis of coastal erosion of beaches due to sea-level rise: an application of DIVA , 2011 .

[32]  Linking CGE with Geographic Information System. , 2001 .

[33]  Maryse Labriet,et al.  Worldwide impacts of climate change on energy for heating and cooling , 2015, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.

[34]  Richard Black,et al.  Migration, immobility and displacement outcomes following extreme events , 2013 .

[35]  R. Tol.  Estimates of the Damage Costs of Climate Change, Part II. Dynamic Estimates , 2002 .

[36]  Robert J. Nicholls,et al.  Economic impacts of climate change in Europe: sea-level rise , 2012, Climatic Change.

[37]  G. Klepper,et al.  Economic impact of climate change: simulations with a regionalized climate-economy model , 2001 .

[38]  Policy-Relevant Assessment Method of Socio-Economic Impacts of Floods: An Italian Case Study , 2012 .

[39]  M. Marchand,et al.  Sea level rise : a global vulnerability assessment vulnerability assessments for population, coastal wetlands and rice production on a global scale , 1993 .