Range of gypsy moth in British Columbia: a study of climatic suitability

The potential range of gypsy moth in British Columbia is predicted from climatic comparisons to its native range in Eurasia and by using temperature- dependent phenological models of the life stages. The cool and wet coastal areas, northern B.C., and high elevations are predicted to be unsuitable for gypsy moth. Southeastern Vancouver Island, parts of the lower mainland, and southern interior valleys appear to have suitable climates. However, the availability of preferred hosts may limit establishment in some of these areas. Habitats with Garry oak are of particular concern, since it is the most suitable native tree species and is already threatened by urban development. Keywords: Lymantria dispar; Lymantriidae; discriminant function analysis; life stage; biogeoclimatic zones; development modelling

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