Towards a Comprehensive Framework for Climate Change Multi-Risk Assessment in the Mining Industry

Changing climate conditions affect mining operations all over the world, but so far, the mining sector has focused primarily on mitigation actions. Nowadays, there exists increasing recognition of the need for planned adaptation actions. To this end, the development of a practical tool for the assessment of climate change-related risks to support the mining community is deemed necessary. In this study, a comprehensive framework is proposed for climate change multi-risk assessment at the local level customized for the needs of the mining industry. The framework estimates the climate change risks in economic terms by modeling the main activities that a mining company performs, in a probabilistic model, using Bayes’ theorem. The model permits incorporating inherent uncertainty via fuzzy logic and is implemented in two versatile ways: as a discrete Bayesian network or as a conditional linear Gaussian network. This innovative quantitative methodology produces probabilistic outcomes in monetary values estimated either as percentage of annual loss revenue or net loss/gains value. Finally, the proposed framework is the first multi-risk methodology in the mining context that considers all the relevant hazards caused by climate change extreme weather events, which offers a tool for selecting the most cost-effective action among various adaptation strategies.

[1]  J. Kapsomenakis,et al.  Regional climate model simulations of extreme air temperature in Greece. Abnormal or common records in the future climate , 2015 .

[2]  Cees J. van Westen,et al.  Generation of a national landslide hazard and risk map for the country of Georgia , 2016, Natural Hazards.

[3]  J. McLaughlin,et al.  Application of a Bayesian belief network for assessing the vulnerability of permafrost to thaw and implications for greenhouse gas production and climate feedback , 2014 .

[4]  Damian Barrett,et al.  Managing too little and too much water: Robust mine-water management strategies under variable climate and mine conditions , 2017 .

[5]  Pejman Tahmasebi,et al.  Risk of fire occurrence in arid and semi-arid ecosystems of Iran: an investigation using Bayesian belief networks , 2016, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment.

[6]  Christos Giannakopoulos,et al.  Sensitivity and evaluation of current fire risk and future projections due to climate change: the case study of Greece , 2013 .

[7]  P. White,et al.  Effects of extreme natural events on the provision of ecosystem services in a mountain environment: The importance of trail design in delivering system resilience and ecosystem service co-benefits. , 2016, Journal of environmental management.

[8]  Jörn Birkmann,et al.  Vulnerability assessment in natural hazard and risk analysis: current approaches and future challenges , 2012, Natural Hazards.

[9]  Rosa F. Ropero,et al.  Bayesian networks for evaluating climate change influence in olive crops in Andalusia, Spain , 2019 .

[10]  Kieren Moffat,et al.  Climate change adaptation in Australian mining communities: comparing mining company and local government views and activities , 2013, Climatic Change.

[11]  Charles A Menzie,et al.  ECOLOGICAL RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE , 2012, Environmental toxicology and chemistry.

[12]  Jeanne X. Kasperson,et al.  The Social Contours of Risk , 2022 .

[13]  Sierra Rayne,et al.  Analytical Framework for a Risk-based Estimation of Climate Change Effects on Mine Site Runoff Water Quality , 2009 .

[14]  R. Leemans,et al.  A Multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerability to global change , 2004 .

[15]  Ahmed F. Zobaa,et al.  Impacts of Climate Change on the Power Industry and How It is Adapting , 2011 .

[16]  Norman Fenton,et al.  Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks , 2012 .

[17]  B. Dawson,et al.  UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE (UNFCCC) , 2008 .

[18]  Tristan Pearce,et al.  Canary in a coal mine: perceptions of climate change risks and response options among Canadian mine operations , 2011 .

[19]  Edoardo Patelli,et al.  Enhanced Bayesian Network approach to sea wave overtopping hazard quantification , 2015 .

[20]  D. Barrett,et al.  Assessing spatial likelihood of flooding hazard using naïve Bayes and GIS: a case study in Bowen Basin, Australia , 2016, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment.

[21]  J. Phillips,et al.  Climate change and surface mining: A review of environment-human interactions & their spatial dynamics , 2016 .

[22]  N. Diffenbaugh,et al.  Heat stress intensification in the Mediterranean climate change hotspot , 2007 .

[23]  Laura Uusitalo,et al.  Advantages and challenges of Bayesian networks in environmental modelling , 2007 .

[24]  Andrea Castelletti,et al.  Bayesian Networks and participatory modelling in water resource management , 2007, Environ. Model. Softw..

[25]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Bayesian Networks , 1998, Encyclopedia of Social Network Analysis and Mining. 2nd Ed..

[26]  B. Loechel,et al.  Informing the future of Australian mining through climate change scenarios , 2013 .

[27]  B. Marcot,et al.  Guidelines for developing and updating Bayesian belief networks applied to ecological modeling and conservation , 2006 .

[28]  Josep Piñol,et al.  Climate Warming, Wildfire Hazard, and Wildfire Occurrence in Coastal Eastern Spain , 1998 .

[29]  Rafael Rumí,et al.  MPE Inference in Conditional Linear Gaussian Networks , 2015, ECSQARU.

[30]  Lea Berrang-Ford,et al.  Climate change and mining in Canada , 2011 .

[31]  Karen E. Frey,et al.  Mining and climate change: A review and framework for analysis , 2018 .

[32]  G. Leaves.  Guidelines for Environmental Risk Assessment and Management , 2011 .

[33]  B. Merz,et al.  Comparative Risk Assessments for the City of Cologne – Storms, Floods, Earthquakes , 2006 .

[34]  Timothy F. Smith,et al.  Igniting change in local government: lessons learned from a bushfire vulnerability assessment , 2009 .

[35]  Carlo Giupponi,et al.  Potentials of Bayesian Networks to Deal with Uncertainty in Climate Change Adaptation Policies , 2009 .

[36]  James R. Bradley.  An improved method for managing catastrophic supply chain disruptions , 2014 .

[37]  Annika Bjelkevik.  Water Cover Closure Design for Tailings Dams State of the Art Report , 2005 .

[38]  D. Lobell,et al.  A method for quantifying vulnerability, applied to the agricultural system of the Yaqui Valley, Mexico , 2003 .

[39]  Silvia Torresan,et al.  Reviewing Bayesian Networks potentials for climate change impacts assessment and management: A multi-risk perspective. , 2017, Journal of environmental management.

[40]  Peter N. Adams,et al.  Application of Bayesian Networks to hindcast barrier island morphodynamics , 2015 .

[41]  Daniel M. Franks,et al.  Extractive resource development in a changing climate: learning the lessons from extreme weather events in Queensland, Australia , 2013 .

[42]  A. Becker,et al.  Climate change impacts on international seaports: knowledge, perceptions, and planning efforts among port administrators , 2011, Climatic Change.

[43]  Alistair J. Hobday,et al.  Climate adaptation in Australia’s resource-extraction industries: ready or not? , 2014, Regional Environmental Change.

[44]  Daniel M. Franks,et al.  In Situ Adaptation to Climatic Change: Mineral Industry Responses to Extreme Flooding Events in Queensland, Australia , 2013 .

[45]  Andrea Hevia,et al.  What drives growth of Scots pine in continental Mediterranean climates: Drought, low temperatures or both? , 2015 .

[46]  Harry D. Kambezidis,et al.  Fire-Risk Assessment in Northern Greece Using a Modified Fosberg Fire-Weather Index That Includes Forest Coverage , 2016 .

[47]  Valeriah Hwacha.  CANADA'S EXPERIENCE IN DEVELOPING A NATIONAL DISASTER MITIGATION STRATEGY: A DELIBERATIVE DIALOGUE APPROACH , 2005 .

[48]  G. Yumul,et al.  Extreme weather events and related disasters in the Philippines, 2004-08: a sign of what climate change will mean? , 2011, Disasters.

[49]  Steven Broekx,et al.  A review of Bayesian belief networks in ecosystem service modelling , 2013, Environ. Model. Softw..

[50]  D. Damigos,et al.  Development of a composite climate change vulnerability index for small craft harbours , 2018, Environmental Hazards.

[51]  Damian Barrett,et al.  A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates. , 2015, The Science of the total environment.

[52]  Stefan Klotz,et al.  Drought resistance of native pioneer species indicates potential suitability for restoration of post-mining areas , 2015 .

[53]  Nir Friedman,et al.  Probabilistic Graphical Models: Principles and Techniques - Adaptive Computation and Machine Learning , 2009 .

[54]  Paolo Gasparini,et al.  Multi-risk Assessment as a Tool for Decision-Making , 2015 .

[55]  W. Towers,et al.  The Risk of Peat Erosion from Climate Change: Land Management Combinations—An Assessment with Bayesian Belief Networks , 2010 .

[56]  Valentina Gallina,et al.  A review of multi-risk methodologies for natural hazards: Consequences and challenges for a climate change impact assessment. , 2016, Journal of environmental management.

[57]  Kieren Moffat,et al.  Climate adaptation in the Australian mining and exploration industries , 2010 .

[58]  C. Bradshaw,et al.  Global evidence that deforestation amplifies flood risk and severity in the developing world , 2007 .

[59]  Stefan Greiving,et al.  REGIONALMULTI-RISK REVIEW , HAZARDWEIGHTINGAND SPATIALPLANNING RESPONSE TO RISK – RESULTS FROM EUROPEAN CASE STUDIES by , 2006 .

[60]  A. M. Hanea,et al.  A Bayesian network approach for coastal risk analysis and decision making , 2017 .

[61]  Thomas Bles,et al.  Proposed methodology for risk analysis of interdependent critical infrastructures to extreme weather events , 2018, Int. J. Crit. Infrastructure Prot..

[62]  S Falemo,et al.  Risk management for roads in a changing climate , 2010 .

[63]  Hacene Smadi,et al.  Bayesian Belief Network Used in the Chemical and Process Industry: A Review and Application , 2017, Journal of Failure Analysis and Prevention.

[64]  B. Smit,et al.  Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability , 2006 .

[65]  James D. Ford,et al.  Evaluating climate change vulnerability assessments: a case study of research focusing on the built environment in northern Canada , 2015, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.

[66]  Sakari Kuikka,et al.  Bene-Eia: A Bayesian Approach to Expert Judgment Elicitation with Case Studies on Climate Change Impacts on Surface Waters , 1997 .

[67]  D. Damigos,et al.  Monetizing the impacts of climate change on the Greek mining sector , 2012, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.

[68]  Edoardo Bertone,et al.  Bayesian Network and system thinking modelling to manage water-related health risks from extreme events , 2015, 2015 IEEE International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management (IEEM).

[69]  Md. Golam Mahabub Sarwar.  Impacts of climate change on maritime industries , 2006 .

[70]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data , 2011 .

[71]  Marko Becker.  Symbolic And Quantitative Approaches To Reasoning With Uncertainty , 2016 .

[72]  W. R. Shao,et al.  Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis , 2008 .

[73]  Jorge Leiva Gonzalez.  Environmental Management Initiatives concerning energy and water challenges in the Chilean mining industry , 2018 .

[74]  Rafael Rumí,et al.  Bayesian networks in environmental modelling , 2011, Environ. Model. Softw..

[75]  M. Rounsevell,et al.  The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change , 2006 .

[76]  Sakari Kuikka,et al.  Learning Bayesian decision analysis by doing: lessons from environmental and natural resources management , 1999 .

[77]  Hareton K. N. Leung,et al.  Assessment of Catastrophic Risk Using Bayesian Network Constructed from Domain Knowledge and Spatial Data , 2010, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[78]  C. P. Burgess,et al.  A macro-scale flood risk model for Jamaica with impact of climate variability , 2015, Natural Hazards.

[79]  池谷 壽夫,et al.  Vulnerability: reflections on a new ethical foundation for law and politics , 2013 .

[80]  Sonke Kreft,et al.  Global climate risk index 2015 : who suffers most From extreme weather events? weather-related loss events in 2013 and 1994 to 2013. , 2014 .

[81]  Humfrey Melling,et al.  Implications of Climate Change for Economic Development in Northern Canada: Energy, Resource, and Transportation Sectors , 2009, Ambio.

[82]  Benjamin F. Hobbs,et al.  Bayesian methods for analysing climate change and water resource uncertainties , 1997 .

[83]  Vigya Sharma,et al.  Climate change and mining: a foreign policy perspective , 2016 .

[84]  Jane H. Hodgkinson,et al.  Climate change and sustainability as drivers for the next mining and metals boom: The need for climate-smart mining and recycling , 2018, Resources Policy.

[85]  Gan Sun,et al.  Effects of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi on the drought resistance of the mining area repair plant Sainfoin , 2014 .

[86]  Tristan Pearce,et al.  Perceptions of climate change risks in primary resource use industries: a survey of the Canadian mining sector , 2010 .

[87]  Allan Tucker,et al.  A Bayesian Belief Network to assess rate of changes in coral reef ecosystems , 2016, Environ. Model. Softw..

[88]  Damien Giurco,et al.  Adapting to climate risks and extreme weather: A guide for mining and minerals industry professionals , 2013 .

[89]  Neville Nicholls,et al.  Climate change impacts on fire-weather in south-east Australia , 2005 .

[90]  Thomas Glade,et al.  A Common Methodology for Risk Assessment and Mapping of Climate Change Related Hazards—Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policies , 2016 .

[91]  Julia Rosen.  Cold truths at the top of the world , 2016, Nature.

[92]  Leah Mason,et al.  Climate change adaptation for Australian minerals industry professionals , 2013 .

[93]  J. Malet,et al.  Recommendations for the quantitative analysis of landslide risk , 2013, Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment.

[94]  P. Mikkelsen,et al.  Framework for economic pluvial flood risk assessment considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits , 2012 .

[95]  John L. Innes,et al.  Application of Structured Decision Making to an Assessment of Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Options for Sustainable Forest Management , 2009 .

[96]  N. Kazakis,et al.  Assessment of flood hazard areas at a regional scale using an index-based approach and Analytical Hierarchy Process: Application in Rhodope-Evros region, Greece. , 2015, The Science of the total environment.

[97]  Bill Johnson,et al.  Risk based evaluation of mine waste dumps , 1993 .