Dynamic Analysis of the Consequences of Gas Release in Process Industries Using Event Tree Technique and Bayesian Network

Storage tanks that contain a wide range of chemicals, compressed gas, and other hydrocarbons play an important role in the process industries. Gas release from these tanks can lead to catastrophic events that can lead to significant financial, human, and environmental consequences. In this study, a compressed gas tank was chosen as the case unit under study. The gas release was taken into consideration as the top event for quantitative and qualitative analyses of the probable consequences using the Event Tree Analysis (ETA) and Bayesian network (BN) model. According to the ETA analyses, 6 safety barriers were identified that could prevent the top event and the success and failure of these barriers led to the 10 final consequences. Among the identified consequences, near misses were known to be the most probable consequences of the top event. The results showed that the presence of safety barriers could significantly reduce the consequences of the occurrence of the top event. BN could fix the static problem of the quantitative risk analysis and provide the capability to determine the most probable consequences of the top event.

[1]  Mayank Tyagi,et al.  Quantification of Risks Associated With a Representative Production Well in the Gulf of Mexico , 2015 .

[2]  مصطفی میرزائی علی آبادی,et al.  Risk assessment of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) storage tanks in the process industries using the Bowtie technique , 2016 .

[3]  Sohag Kabir,et al.  Dynamic system safety analysis in HiP-HOPS with Petri Nets and Bayesian Networks , 2018, Safety Science.

[4]  Faisal Khan,et al.  Quantitative risk analysis of offshore drilling operations: A Bayesian approach , 2013 .

[5]  A. Ronza,et al.  Contributions to the risk assessment of major accidents in port areas , 2007 .

[6]  Z Y Han,et al.  Comparison study on qualitative and quantitative risk assessment methods for urban natural gas pipeline network. , 2011, Journal of hazardous materials.

[7]  Faisal Khan,et al.  Dynamic safety analysis of process systems by mapping bow-tie into Bayesian network , 2013 .

[8]  Stephen Butt,et al.  Safety and risk analysis of managed pressure drilling operation using Bayesian network , 2015 .

[9]  Lawrence C. Smith,et al.  Analysis of Environmental and Economic Damages from British Petroleum’s Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill , 2010 .

[10]  Cheng-Chung Lin,et al.  A study of storage tank accidents , 2006 .

[11]  Faisal Khan,et al.  Risk Analysis of Dust Explosion Scenarios Using Bayesian Networks , 2015, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[12]  Yonghong Liu,et al.  Application of Bayesian Networks in Quantitative Risk Assessment of Subsea Blowout Preventer Operations , 2013, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[13]  Nigel Hyatt.  Guidelines for Process Hazards Analysis (PHA, HAZOP), Hazards Identification, and Risk Analysis , 2003 .

[14]  Ming Yang,et al.  Kick control reliability analysis of managed pressure drilling operation , 2018 .

[15]  Frank Pearson Lees,et al.  Loss prevention in the process industries : hazard identification, assessment, and control , 1980 .

[16]  Qingji Zhou,et al.  Addressing the epistemic uncertainty in maritime accidents modelling using Bayesian network with interval probabilities , 2018 .

[17]  Jun g Sik Kong,et al.  Quantitative risk evaluation based on event tree analysis technique: Application to the design of shield TBM , 2009 .

[18]  Sarah J. Dunnett,et al.  Event-tree analysis using binary decision diagrams , 2000, IEEE Trans. Reliab..

[19]  Xianguo Wu,et al.  Towards a Fuzzy Bayesian Network Based Approach for Safety Risk Analysis of Tunnel‐Induced Pipeline Damage , 2016, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[20]  Faisal Khan,et al.  Modelling of BP Texas City refinery accident using dynamic risk assessment approach , 2010 .

[21]  Dimitrios E. Koulouriotis,et al.  A risk-estimation methodological framework using quantitative assessment techniques and real accidents' data : Application in an aluminum extrusion industry , 2008 .

[22]  Gheorghe Florea,et al.  Safety and Security Integration in LPG Tank Farm Process Control , 2012 .

[23]  Sou-Sen Leu,et al.  Bayesian-network-based safety risk assessment for steel construction projects. , 2013, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[24]  M Sam Mannan,et al.  Incident analysis of Bucheon LPG filling station pool fire and BLEVE. , 2006, Journal of hazardous materials.

[25]  Shi Shiliang,et al.  City Fire Risk Analysis based on Coupling Fault Tree Method and Triangle Fuzzy Theory , 2014 .

[26]  P. Pezzotti,et al.  Ultrasonographic detection and assessment of the severity of Crohn's disease recurrence after ileal resection , 2010, BMC gastroenterology.

[27]  Nima Khakzad,et al.  Dynamic risk analysis using bow-tie approach , 2012, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[28]  Jérôme Taveau,et al.  Explosion of fixed roof atmospheric storage tanks, part 1: Background and review of case histories , 2011 .

[29]  Seyed Bagher Mortazavi,et al.  Identification and Safety Assessment of the Hazardous Zones (Unwanted Energy Flows) in an Construction Project at the National Petrochemical Company by Application of ET and BA Method , 2007 .

[30]  M. Sam Mannan,et al.  The development and application of dynamic operational risk assessment in oil/gas and chemical process industry , 2010, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[31]  Nima Khakzad,et al.  Dynamic safety risk analysis of offshore drilling , 2014 .