A whole life cycle approach under uncertainty for economically justifiable ballasted railway track maintenance

Abstract Historically, railway track maintenance strategies have been based on engineering judgement taking into account available budgets and operational safety. This has led to insufficient concern of the socio-economic and environmental costs and benefits of track maintenance. Given the pressure to increase track utilisation, the ageing infrastructure of railway networks, constrained maintenance budgets, the vertical separation of the ownership and operation of railway track infrastructure and rolling stock in many countries, and concerns about the environmental impacts of transport, there is a need to implement economically justifiable maintenance strategies. To this end, this paper presents for the first time an approach to appraise the investment in railway track maintenance. The approach uses a whole life cycle cost analysis under uncertainty approach which considers the costs and benefits of track maintenance to train operators, users and the environment. Monte Carlo simulation technique is used to address data uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of track and train operation and maintenance. The proposed approach is applied to three different route types on the UK main-line railway network to compare a number of alternative maintenance strategies. In all the three cases more economically beneficial strategies were identified in comparison to those currently adopted.

[1]  John Andrews,et al.  Railway Infrastructure Asset Management: The Whole-System Life Cost Analysis , 2016 .

[2]  Nigel J. Smith,et al.  Managing Risk in Construction Projects , 1998 .

[3]  Robert Desmond Fröhling,et al.  Low Frequency Dynamic Vehicle/Track Interaction: Modelling and Simulation , 1998 .

[4]  Francesco Corman,et al.  Integrated optimization on train scheduling and preventive maintenance time slots planning , 2017 .

[5]  Bart De Schutter,et al.  Multi-level condition-based maintenance planning for railway infrastructures – A scenario-based chance-constrained approach , 2017 .

[6]  R.B. Faiz,et al.  Predictive Maintenance Management of Rail Profile in UK Rail , 2009, 2009 International Conference on Computing, Engineering and Information.

[7]  John Andrews,et al.  A modelling approach to railway track asset management , 2013 .

[8]  D. Gattuso,et al.  A Tool for Railway Transport Cost Evaluation , 2014 .

[9]  Jianmin Zhao,et al.  Optimizing Policies of Railway Ballast Tamping and Renewal , 2006 .

[10]  A. Zoeteman Life cycle cost analysis for managing rail infrastructure , 2001 .

[11]  Roger Kemp Scope for reduction in transport CO2 emissions by modal shift , 2016 .

[12]  Francesco Corman,et al.  Integrated stochastic optimization approaches for tactical scheduling of trains and railway infrastructure maintenance , 2017, Comput. Ind. Eng..

[13]  S. Mokrousov,et al.  Analysis and evaluation of the life cycle cost of technical rail systems (for example, a wheel pair) , 2013 .

[14]  Hakan Guler,et al.  Modelling railway track geometry deterioration , 2011 .

[15]  Martin Joborn,et al.  An optimization model for integrated planning of railway traffic and network maintenance , 2017 .

[16]  John Andrews,et al.  Investigating railway track asset management using a Markov analysis , 2015 .

[17]  E Schnieder,et al.  Monte Carlo simulation of railway track geometry deterioration and restoration , 2012 .

[18]  Gunilla Björklund,et al.  Marginal railway track renewal costs: a survival data approach , 2016 .

[19]  Tiago Domingos,et al.  Life cycle assessment of high-speed rail: a case study in Portugal , 2017, The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment.

[20]  John D. Andrews,et al.  Optimal Scheduling of Track Maintenance on a Railway Network , 2013, Qual. Reliab. Eng. Int..

[21]  M. Spiller,et al.  Cost Benefit Analysis - Key Features and Future Directions , 2014 .

[22]  Paulo Fonseca Teixeira,et al.  Optimisation model to schedule railway track renewal operations: a life-cycle cost approach , 2015 .

[23]  Jiamin Fang,et al.  Life Cycle Cost Prediction for Rolling Stocks in Maintenance Phase Based on VBA Language Program , 2015 .

[24]  Terje Aven,et al.  Risk assessment and risk management: Review of recent advances on their foundation , 2016, Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[25]  Phill Wheat,et al.  Estimating the relative cost of track damage mechanisms: combining economic and engineering approaches , 2017, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers. Part F, Journal of rail and rapid transit.

[26]  C. S. Bonaventura,et al.  Dynamic Effects of Track Surface Condition on Vertical Wheel/Rail Forces and Energy Consumption , 2010 .

[27]  Venkatarami Reddy,et al.  Modelling and Analysis of Rail Maintenance Cost , 2007 .

[28]  John Nellthorp,et al.  Transport project appraisal in the European Union , 2000 .

[29]  Michael Burrow,et al.  Uncertainties in Forecasting Maintenance Costs for Asset Management: Application to an Aging Canal System , 2017 .

[30]  Cornelius Jacobus Fourie,et al.  A decision-making framework for effective maintenance management using life cycle costing (LCC) in a rolling stock environment , 2016 .

[31]  K. Declercq,et al.  Economic Evaluation of Urban Track Systems: Integration of Life Cycle Costs and Socio-Economic Assessment , 2012 .

[32]  Stanislav Vitasek,et al.  Life Cycle Cost of a Railroad Switch , 2017 .

[33]  P. Fonseca Teixeira,et al.  Uncertainty in Rail-Track Geometry Degradation: Lisbon-Oporto Line Case Study , 2011 .

[34]  Hakan Guler,et al.  Decision Support System for Railway Track Maintenance and Renewal Management , 2013 .

[35]  Håkan Schunnesson,et al.  Optimisation of track geometry inspection interval , 2014 .

[36]  Wenbin Wang,et al.  Cost modelling in maintenance strategy optimisation for infrastructure assets with limited data , 2014, Reliab. Eng. Syst. Saf..

[37]  Alireza Ahmadi,et al.  Track geometry degradation and maintenance modelling: A review , 2018 .

[38]  Alp Özdemir,et al.  An evaluation of railway passenger transport in Turkey using life cycle assessment and life cycle cost methods , 2015 .

[39]  Dexter V. L. Hunt,et al.  Risk assessment for a UK pan‐European Supergrid , 2015 .

[40]  John Andrews,et al.  The effects of tamping on railway track geometry degradation , 2013 .

[41]  Lei Dai,et al.  Developing a life cycle cost model for real-time condition monitoring in railways under uncertainty , 2017 .

[42]  Ernest T. Selig,et al.  Track Geotechnology and Substructure Management , 1995 .

[43]  Dan M. Frangopol,et al.  Two probabilistic life-cycle maintenance models for deteriorating civil infrastructures , 2004 .

[44]  Matthias Asplund Wayside condition monitoring technologies for railway systems , 2014 .

[45]  Uday Kumar,et al.  Uncertainty estimation in railway track life-cycle cost: a case study from Swedish National Rail Administration , 2009 .

[46]  Robert J Willis,et al.  Minimum Cost Maintenance in Heavy Haul Rail Track , 1983 .

[47]  Vytautas Lingaitis,et al.  Passenger Transport by Railway: Evaluation of Economic and Social Phenomenon , 2014 .

[48]  António Ramos Andrade,et al.  Exploring Different Alert Limit Strategies in the Maintenance of Railway Track Geometry , 2016 .

[49]  Essam Shehab,et al.  Development of a Whole Life Cycle Cost Model for Electrification options on the UK Rail System , 2016 .

[50]  Hiroyuki Sugiyama,et al.  Railroad Vehicle Dynamics: A Computational Approach , 2007 .

[51]  Katarzyna Palikowska,et al.  New Approach to Arc Fitting for Railway Track Realignment , 2016 .