The Impact of Restructuring Policy Changes on Power Grid Reliability

This paper outlines the results of a cooperative effort between Sandia National Laboratories, Associated Power Analysts, Inc. and Texas A&M University to characterize the impact of a changing regulatory environment on the reliability of customer electrical service. It was desired to assess the impact in as realistic an environment as possible. Due the availability of data the initial study centered on the electric power grid in Texas. Specifically, data from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) for the 1997 operational year was used in the research. Based on geography and location of generation and transmission lines, ten basic areas were considered and each area was modeled as a single point generation and load. A number of restructuring scenarios were developed by researchers at Sandia National Laboratories and investigated by Associated Power Analysts using their N-Area Reliability Program (NARP). The present study is limited to an assessment of the adequacy aspects of reliability: sufficiency of installed generation and transmission capacity to satisfy the needs of all consumers in a steady- state sense. The results are, on one hand conservative in that they address on] y the impact of peak loading. Alternatively, the~ are optimistic in that the transmission lines are assumed to be in continuous operation. The major results of this study indicate that, in anew regulatory era, the reliability of customer service will be significantly impacted, possibly in a negative fashion, unless the effects of the ensuing economic pressures are understood and appropriate actions taken.