INTER-URBAN RAIL DEMAND, ELASTICITIES AND COMPETITION IN GREAT BRITAIN: EVIDENCE FROM DIRECT DEMAND MODELS

The aim of this research was to extend direct demand models to analyse elasticity variation in more detail, and in particular to examine the interaction between rail and competing modes. Relatively little is known about the interaction between modes in the inter-urban travel market. We have obtained plausible, precise and reliable estimates of elasticity variation with regard to both the level a variable takes and with respect to the degree of competition from car and coach. These relationships have been freely estimated rather than imposed and would in many instances imply appreciable differences in demand forecasts in comparison with models which do not include competitive effects. As a result of this research, British Rail has amended its forecasting procedures to include competitive effects. We recommend the more widespread use of direct demand models to examine elasticity variation.

[1]  David Shilton.  Modelling the Demand for High Speed Train Services , 1982 .

[2]  A. D. Owen,et al.  The characteristics of railway passenger demand. An econometric investigation. , 1987 .

[3]  R. Quandt,et al.  THE DEMAND FOR ABSTRACT TRANSPORT MODES: THEORY AND MEASUREMENT. IN: URBAN TRANSPORT , 1966 .

[4]  J T Everest,et al.  ANALYSIS OF RAIL AND AIR PASSENGER FLOWS BETWEEN LONDON AND GLASGOW USING BOX-JENKINS METHODS , 1980 .

[5]  Marvin L Manheim.  PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS OF SOME FUNDAMENTAL PROPERTIES OF TRAVEL-DEMAND MODELS , 1973 .

[6]  Takayuki Morikawa,et al.  REVIEW AND PERSPECTIVE OF INCORPORATING STATED PREFERENCE DATA IN TRAVEL DEMAND ANALYSIS , 1990 .

[7]  Moshe Ben-Akiva,et al.  FORECASTING INTERCITY RAIL RIDERSHIP USING REVEALED PREFERENCE AND STATED PREFERENCE DATA , 1991 .

[8]  Mark Wardman,et al.  FORECASTING THE IMPACT OF SERVICE QUALITY CHANGES ON THE DEMAND FOR INTER-URBAN RAIL TRAVEL / , 1994 .

[9]  A S Fowkes,et al.  Understanding trends in inter‐city rail traffic in Great Britain , 1985 .

[10]  FORECASTING INTER-MODAL INTERACTION , 1991 .

[11]  J. M. Preston,et al.  The evaluation of new local rail stations in West Yorkshire , 1987 .

[12]  A. Daly,et al.  MODELS USING MIXED STATED-PREFERENCE AND REVEALED-PREFERENCE INFORMATION. , 1991 .

[13]  David A. Hensher,et al.  High speed rail market projection: Survey design and analysis , 1992 .

[14]  Peter White,et al.  Modelling of cross-country rail services , 1994 .

[15]  Hugh Gunn,et al.  STATED PREFERENCE ANALYSIS OF VALUES OF TRAVEL TIME IN THE NETHERLANDS , 1990 .

[16]  R H Oldfield,et al.  THE ELASTICITY OF MEDIUM-DISTANCE RAIL TRAVEL , 1981 .

[17]  Werner Rothengatter,et al.  LINEAR OR NONLINEAR UTILITY FUNCTIONS IN LOGIT MODELS. THE IMPACT ON GERMAN HIGH SPEED RAIL DEMAND FORECASTS. REVISED EDITION , 1992 .