Research on Route-Choice Behavior of Unexpected-Destination Trip Under Random Dynamic Conditions

The study of route-choice behavior has been an important part of the study of urban-road transport system. In previous studies, the emergencies of the road network have been studied mostly from different angles under random dynamic conditions. But the condition of route-choice behavior of unexpected-destination trip was rarely mentioned. So in this paper, “unexpected radiation field” is put forward, at the same time, the characteristic of it is also studied. On the basis of this, route-choice behavior of unexpected-destination trip under random dynamic conditions is researched with a combination of “radiation field method” and discrete dynamic Bayesian network. Studies display that the location and important of the unexpected destination affect the route choice behavior closely. The simulation results show that, the model had a positive meaning, and enabled to simulate and reproduce the decision-making process more appropriately.