Parallel Aspect‐Oriented Sentiment Analysis for Sales Forecasting with Big Data

While much research work has been devoted to supply chain management and demand forecast, research on designing big data analytics methodologies to enhance sales forecasting is seldom reported in existing literature. The big data of consumer‐contributed product comments on online social media provide management with unprecedented opportunities to leverage collective consumer intelligence for enhancing supply chain management in general and sales forecasting in particular. The main contributions of our work presented in this study are as follows: (1) the design of a novel big data analytics methodology that is underpinned by a parallel aspect‐oriented sentiment analysis algorithm for mining consumer intelligence from a huge number of online product comments; (2) the design and the large‐scale empirical test of a sentiment enhanced sales forecasting method that is empowered by a parallel co‐evolutionary extreme learning machine. Based on real‐world big datasets, our experimental results confirm that consumer sentiments mined from big data can improve the accuracy of sales forecasting across predictive models and datasets. The managerial implication of our work is that firms can apply the proposed big data analytics methodology to enhance sales forecasting performance. Thereby, the problem of under/over‐stocking is alleviated and customer satisfaction is improved.

[1]  Sergio Ramírez-Gallego,et al.  Distributed Entropy Minimization Discretizer for Big Data Analysis under Apache Spark , 2015, 2015 IEEE Trustcom/BigDataSE/ISPA.

[2]  Wing-Keung Wong,et al.  A hybrid intelligent model for medium-term sales forecasting in fashion retail supply chains using extreme learning machine and harmony search algorithm , 2010 .

[3]  Murtaza Haider,et al.  Beyond the hype: Big data concepts, methods, and analytics , 2015, Int. J. Inf. Manag..

[4]  Bing Liu,et al.  Opinion spam and analysis , 2008, WSDM '08.

[5]  Max Welling,et al.  Distributed Inference for Latent Dirichlet Allocation , 2007, NIPS.

[6]  Andrew B. Whinston,et al.  Whose and what chatter matters? The effect of tweets on movie sales , 2013, Decis. Support Syst..

[7]  Philip S. Yu,et al.  A holistic lexicon-based approach to opinion mining , 2008, WSDM '08.

[8]  Thomas R. Gruber,et al.  A translation approach to portable ontology specifications , 1993, Knowl. Acquis..

[9]  Lawrence Carin,et al.  Augment-and-Conquer Negative Binomial Processes , 2012, NIPS.

[10]  W. Scott Spangler,et al.  Sales Prediction with Social Media Analysis , 2014, 2014 Annual SRII Global Conference.

[11]  Xu Ling,et al.  Topic sentiment mixture: modeling facets and opinions in weblogs , 2007, WWW '07.

[12]  Qiang Yang,et al.  Scalable Parallel EM Algorithms for Latent Dirichlet Allocation in Multi-Core Systems , 2015, WWW.

[13]  Arnd Huchzermeier,et al.  Promotion Planning and Supply Chain Contracting in a High–Low Pricing Environment , 2015 .

[14]  Qiang Dong,et al.  HowNet - a hybrid language and knowledge resource , 2003, International Conference on Natural Language Processing and Knowledge Engineering, 2003. Proceedings. 2003.

[15]  Gert R. G. Lanckriet,et al.  Metric Learning to Rank , 2010, ICML.

[16]  G. Box,et al.  Distribution of Residual Autocorrelations in Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average Time Series Models , 1970 .

[17]  Elodie Adida,et al.  Competition and Coordination in a Two-Channel Supply Chain , 2015 .

[18]  Chee Kheong Siew,et al.  Extreme learning machine: Theory and applications , 2006, Neurocomputing.

[19]  Bing Liu,et al.  Sentiment Analysis and Opinion Mining , 2012, Synthesis Lectures on Human Language Technologies.

[20]  Yan Liu,et al.  Parallel gibbs sampling for hierarchical dirichlet processes via gamma processes equivalence , 2014, KDD.

[21]  Xiaohui Yu,et al.  ARSA: a sentiment-aware model for predicting sales performance using blogs , 2007, SIGIR.

[22]  Yulan Wang,et al.  The Implications of Utilizing Market Information and Adopting Agricultural Advice for Farmers in Developing Economies , 2015 .

[23]  Donald Geman,et al.  Stochastic Relaxation, Gibbs Distributions, and the Bayesian Restoration of Images , 1984, IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence.

[24]  Lenos Trigeorgis,et al.  Optimal Sourcing and Lead-Time Reduction under Evolutionary Demand Risk , 2014 .

[25]  Arjun Mukherjee,et al.  Aspect Extraction with Automated Prior Knowledge Learning , 2014, ACL.

[26]  Qing Li,et al.  Exploiting Social Relations and Sentiment for Stock Prediction , 2014, EMNLP.

[27]  Erik Brynjolfsson,et al.  Big data: the management revolution. , 2012, Harvard business review.

[28]  Arjun Mukherjee,et al.  Exploiting Domain Knowledge in Aspect Extraction , 2013, EMNLP.

[29]  Diego Reforgiato Recupero,et al.  AVA: Adjective-Verb-Adverb Combinations for Sentiment Analysis , 2008, IEEE Intelligent Systems.

[30]  Raymond Y. K. Lau,et al.  Social analytics: Learning fuzzy product ontologies for aspect-oriented sentiment analysis , 2014, Decis. Support Syst..

[31]  Zheng Lin,et al.  Towards jointly extracting aspects and aspect-specific sentiment knowledge , 2012, CIKM.

[32]  Bing Liu,et al.  The utility of linguistic rules in opinion mining , 2007, SIGIR.

[33]  Hongfei Yan,et al.  Jointly Modeling Aspects and Opinions with a MaxEnt-LDA Hybrid , 2010, EMNLP.

[34]  Tian-Shyug Lee,et al.  Sales forecasting for computer wholesalers: A comparison of multivariate adaptive regression splines and artificial neural networks , 2012, Decis. Support Syst..

[35]  Yannis Kalfoglou,et al.  Ontology mapping: the state of the art , 2003, The Knowledge Engineering Review.

[36]  Michael I. Jordan,et al.  Hierarchical Dirichlet Processes , 2006 .

[37]  Kang Liu,et al.  Book Review: Sentiment Analysis: Mining Opinions, Sentiments, and Emotions by Bing Liu , 2015, CL.

[38]  Yorick Wilks,et al.  Named Entity Recognition from Diverse Text Types , 2001 .

[39]  Robert LIN,et al.  NOTE ON FUZZY SETS , 2014 .

[40]  Raymond Y. K. Lau,et al.  Product aspect extraction supervised with online domain knowledge , 2014, Knowl. Based Syst..

[41]  Ivan Titov,et al.  A Joint Model of Text and Aspect Ratings for Sentiment Summarization , 2008, ACL.

[42]  Claire Cardie,et al.  Joint Inference for Fine-grained Opinion Extraction , 2013, ACL.

[43]  Johan Bollen,et al.  Twitter mood predicts the stock market , 2010, J. Comput. Sci..

[44]  John F. Canny,et al.  Big data analytics with small footprint: squaring the cloud , 2013, KDD.

[45]  Bing Liu,et al.  Mining and summarizing customer reviews , 2004, KDD.

[46]  Claire Cardie,et al.  OpinionFinder: A System for Subjectivity Analysis , 2005, HLT.

[47]  Mike Thelwall,et al.  Sentiment strength detection for the social web , 2012, J. Assoc. Inf. Sci. Technol..

[48]  G. Gallego,et al.  Supply Chain Coordination in a Market with Customer Service Competition , 2004 .

[49]  A. A. Weiss ARMA MODELS WITH ARCH ERRORS , 1984 .

[50]  Raymond Y. K. Lau,et al.  Big data commerce , 2016, Inf. Manag..

[51]  Edward Y. Chang,et al.  PLDA: Parallel Latent Dirichlet Allocation for Large-Scale Applications , 2009, AAIM.

[52]  Yong Yu,et al.  Sales forecasting using extreme learning machine with applications in fashion retailing , 2008, Decis. Support Syst..

[53]  D. Gupta,et al.  Managing Disruptions in Decentralized Supply Chains with Endogenous Supply Process Reliability , 2014 .

[54]  Xuanjing Huang,et al.  Structural Opinion Mining for Graph-based Sentiment Representation , 2011, EMNLP.

[55]  Björn Olsson,et al.  Co-evolutionary search in asymmetric spaces , 2001, Inf. Sci..

[56]  Raymond Y. K. Lau,et al.  Learning Context-Sensitive Domain Ontologies from Folksonomies: A Cognitively Motivated Method , 2015, INFORMS J. Comput..

[57]  Christos Doulkeridis,et al.  A survey of large-scale analytical query processing in MapReduce , 2013, The VLDB Journal.

[58]  Bing Liu,et al.  Mining topics in documents: standing on the shoulders of big data , 2014, KDD.

[59]  Vladimir Vapnik,et al.  The Nature of Statistical Learning , 1995 .

[60]  Raymond Y. K. Lau,et al.  An evolutionary learning approach for adaptive negotiation agents , 2006, Int. J. Intell. Syst..

[61]  Mike Y. Chen,et al.  Yahoo! for Amazon: Sentiment Extraction from Small Talk on the Web , 2001 .

[62]  Garrett P. Sonnier,et al.  A Dynamic Model of the Effect of Online Communications on Firm Sales , 2011, Mark. Sci..

[63]  Bing Liu,et al.  Mining Aspect-Specific Opinion using a Holistic Lifelong Topic Model , 2016, WWW.

[64]  Erik Cambria,et al.  SenticNet 3: A Common and Common-Sense Knowledge Base for Cognition-Driven Sentiment Analysis , 2014, AAAI.

[65]  Eric P. Xing,et al.  Parallel Markov Chain Monte Carlo for Nonparametric Mixture Models , 2013, ICML.

[66]  Kam-Fai Wong,et al.  Web 2.0 Environmental Scanning and Adaptive Decision Support for Business Mergers and Acquisitions , 2012, MIS Q..

[67]  Guang-Bin Huang,et al.  Extreme learning machine: a new learning scheme of feedforward neural networks , 2004, 2004 IEEE International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IEEE Cat. No.04CH37541).

[68]  Raymond Y. K. Lau,et al.  Adaptive Big Data Analytics for Deceptive Review Detection in Online Social Media , 2014, ICIS.