How Reliable is this Route?: Predictive Travel Time and Reliability for Anticipatory Traveler Information Systems

Schemes are addressed for providing predictive travel time information in consistent anticipatory route guidance systems. A user-equilibrium time-dependent traffic assignment algorithm with the ability for multiple-user class network loading is used to generate consistent anticipatory route guidance information when a fraction of the population is equipped to receive and act on that information. Both a theoretical analysis and a simulation-based approach are presented to evaluate the provision of anticipatory route guidance information in terms of experienced path travel times and their variations. Results indicate that the proposed anticipatory route guidance strategy is accurate and reliable and can improve real-time traffic network performance.

[1]  Khaled Abdelghany.  STOCHASTIC DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT FOR INTERMODAL TRANSPORTATION NETWORKS WITH CONSISTENT INFORMATION SUPPLY STRATEGIES , 2001 .

[2]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  Dynamic Trip Assignment-Simulation Model for Intermodal Transportation Networks , 2001 .

[3]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  Dynamic Network Traffic Assignment and Simulation Methodology for Advanced System Management Applications , 2001 .

[4]  Jon Alan Bottom,et al.  Consistent anticipatory route guidance , 2000 .

[5]  Pitu Mirchandani,et al.  Generalized Traffic Equilibrium with Probabilistic Travel Times and Perceptions , 1987, Transp. Sci..

[6]  K K Srinivasan,et al.  DYNAMIC DECISION AND ADJUSTMENT PROCESSES IN COMMUTER BEHAVIOR UNDER REAL-TIME INFORMATION , 2002 .

[7]  D.E. Kaufman,et al.  An iterative routing/assignment method for anticipatory real-time route guidance , 1991, Vehicle Navigation and Information Systems Conference, 1991.

[8]  Peeta Srinivas,et al.  System optimal dynamic traffic assignment in congested networks with advanced information systems. , 1996 .

[9]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  DYNAMICS OF COMMUTING DECISION BEHAVIOR UNDER ADVANCED TRAVELER INFORMATION SYSTEMS , 1999 .

[10]  Warren B. Powell,et al.  An algorithm for the equilibrium assignment problem with random link times , 1982, Networks.

[11]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  Network performance under system optimal and user equilibrium dynamic assignments: Implications for , 1993 .

[12]  Haris N. Koutsopoulos,et al.  Investigation of Route Guidance Generation Issues by Simulation with DynaMIT , 1999 .

[13]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  System optimal and user equilibrium time-dependent traffic assignment in congested networks , 1995, Ann. Oper. Res..

[14]  Haris N. Koutsopoulos,et al.  DEVELOPMENT OF A ROUTE GUIDANCE GENERATION SYSTEM FOR REAL-TIME APPLICATION , 1997 .

[15]  Johan van Leeuwaarden,et al.  Bounds and Approximations for the Fixed-Cycle Traffic-Light Queue , 2006, Transp. Sci..

[16]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  Modeling Inertia and Compliance Mechanisms in Route Choice Behavior Under Real-Time Information , 2000 .

[17]  Donald R. McNeil,et al.  A solution to the fixed-cycle traffic light problem for compound Poisson arrivals , 1968 .

[18]  Georgia Perakis,et al.  Averaging Schemes for Variational Inequalities and Systems of Equations , 1997, Math. Oper. Res..

[19]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  Effect of real-time information on network performance under alternative dynamic assignment rules , 1993 .

[20]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  Effect of Information Quality on Compliance Behavior of Commuters Under Real-Time Traffic Information , 1999 .

[21]  Giulio Erberto Cantarella,et al.  Dynamic Processes and Equilibrium in Transportation Networks: Towards a Unifying Theory , 1995, Transp. Sci..

[22]  Georgia Perakis,et al.  Solving variational inequality and fixed point problems by averaging and optimizing potentials , 1997 .

[23]  Chung-Cheng Lu,et al.  Value of Information: Provision of Anticipatory Descriptive Travel Information Through a Real-Time Traffic Estimation and Prediction System , 2005 .

[24]  Isam Kaysi,et al.  The Impact of Predictive Information on Guidance Efficiency: An Analytical Approach , 1996 .

[25]  J. Darroch.  On the Traffic-light Queue , 1964 .

[26]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  System Optimal Dynamic Assignment for Electronic Route Guidance in a Congested Traffic Network: Dynamic Flow Modelling and Control , 1995 .

[27]  Isam Kaysi,et al.  FRAMEWORK AND MODELS FOR THE PROVISION OF REAL-TIME DRIVER INFORMATION , 1992 .

[28]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  System performance and user response under real-time information in a congested traffic corridor , 1991 .

[29]  Hani S. Mahmassani,et al.  An evaluation tool for advanced traffic information and management systems in urban networks , 1994 .