A General Framework for Multi-Criteria Based Feasibility Studies for Solar Energy Projects: Application to a Real-World Solar Farm

The growth of solar energy is projected to slow down during 2023–25 despite the fall in costs due to economic deceleration, reduced incentives, and market barriers including the lack of relevant and flexible energy project planning and decision-making tools. This study proposes a flexible and computationally simple multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)-based model that takes technical, financial, environmental, social and legal aspects of all project options as input and outputs a feasibility score for each option, which enables ranking the options and identifying the best alternative. The proposed model is applied to a real-world photovoltaic solar farm planned at a site in England and comprising nine different configurations formed by varying system capacity, energy storage option, mode of stakeholder, and network connections. The results of our study show that in this case the options without battery storage and a greater number of off-taker connections are more favorable than the options with battery storage. The analysis also shows that for the solar farm of the presented case study, ‘self-consumption fraction’ and ‘energy yield’, ‘net present value’, ‘life-cycle carbon emission reduction’, ‘ease of permit acquisition’ and ‘public approval’ are key sub-criteria for ‘technical’, ‘financial’, ‘environmental’, and ‘social and legal’ criteria, respectively. A sensitivity analysis was conducted to assess the confidence on the obtained solution, and a change in the first preference was noticed when ‘environmental’ and ‘social and legal’ aspects are given higher weight over ‘technical’ and ‘financial’ aspects. The results obtained are in line with the recommendations by experts, who carried out an independent feasibility analysis considering the same options.

[1]  Juan Miguel Sánchez-Lozano,et al.  Evaluation of photovoltaic cells in a multi-criteria decision making process , 2012, Ann. Oper. Res..

[2]  Dong Jun,et al.  Macro-site selection of wind/solar hybrid power station based on ELECTRE-II , 2014 .

[3]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  Application of MCDM Methods in Sustainability Engineering: A Literature Review 2008-2018 , 2019, Symmetry.

[4]  Naim Afgan,et al.  Sustainability assessment of hydrogen energy systems , 2004 .

[5]  Ruijiang Hong,et al.  Investigating the Impact of Shading Effect on the Characteristics of a Large-Scale Grid-Connected PV Power Plant in Northwest China , 2014 .

[6]  Geerten van de Kaa,et al.  Residential grid storage technology battles: a multi-criteria analysis using BWM , 2018, Technol. Anal. Strateg. Manag..

[7]  G. Destouni,et al.  Renewable Energy , 2010, AMBIO.

[8]  Deepak Sharma,et al.  An Overview of Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Methods in Dealing with Sustainable Energy Development Issues , 2018, Energies.

[9]  Eric W. Stein,et al.  A comprehensive multi-criteria model to rank electric energy production technologies , 2013 .

[10]  Fausto Cavallaro,et al.  Multi-criteria decision aid to assess concentrated solar thermal technologies , 2009 .

[11]  Naim Afgan,et al.  Sustainability assessment tool for the decision making in selection of energy system—Bosnian case , 2007 .

[12]  Huchang Liao,et al.  The state-of-the-art survey on integrations and applications of the best worst method in decision making: Why, what, what for and what's next? , 2019, Omega.

[13]  Genserik Reniers,et al.  Cost-Benefit Analysis of Safety Measures , 2016 .

[14]  İhsan Kaya,et al.  A comprehensive review of fuzzy multi criteria decision making methodologies for energy policy making , 2019, Energy Strategy Reviews.

[15]  C. Kahraman,et al.  Evaluation of renewable energy alternatives using MACBETH and fuzzy AHP multicriteria methods: the case of Turkey , 2013 .

[16]  J. R. San Cristóbal,et al.  Multi-criteria decision-making in the selection of a renewable energy project in Spain: the VIKOR method. , 2011 .

[17]  Fausto Cavallaro,et al.  Fuzzy TOPSIS approach for assessing thermal-energy storage in concentrated solar power (CSP) systems , 2010 .

[18]  Huiru Zhao,et al.  Comprehensive Performance Assessment on Various Battery Energy Storage Systems , 2018, Energies.

[19]  Konstantinos Aravossis,et al.  Decision making in renewable energy investments: A review , 2016 .

[20]  M. Dhimish,et al.  Performance Ratio and Degradation Rate Analysis of 10-Year Field Exposed Residential Photovoltaic Installations in the UK and Ireland , 2020, Clean Technologies.

[21]  Rob Collins,et al.  Multi criteria decision making (MCDM) application for the feasibility study of a potential CSP project in Namibia , 2018 .

[22]  Pranpreya Sriwannawit,et al.  Barriers to the adoption of photovoltaic systems: The state of the art , 2015 .

[23]  Nain H. Afgan,et al.  Sustainability assessment of a hybrid energy system , 2008 .

[24]  Selcuk Cebi,et al.  A state-of-the-art review on multi-attribute renewable energy decision making , 2019, Energy Strategy Reviews.

[25]  Edmundas Kazimieras Zavadskas,et al.  A review of multi-criteria decision-making applications to solve energy management problems: Two decades from 1995 to 2015 , 2017 .

[26]  J. Rezaei Best-worst multi-criteria decision-making method , 2015 .

[27]  Jiangjiang Wang,et al.  Review on multi-criteria decision analysis aid in sustainable energy decision-making , 2009 .

[28]  Juan Miguel Sánchez-Lozano,et al.  Geographical Information Systems (GIS) and Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) methods for the evaluation of solar farms locations: Case study in south-eastern Spain , 2013 .

[29]  Kamal Golabi,et al.  Selecting a Portfolio of Solar Energy Projects Using Multiattribute Preference Theory , 1981 .

[30]  Arvind R. Singh,et al.  A review of multi criteria decision making (MCDM) towards sustainable renewable energy development , 2017 .

[31]  E. A. Martinez-Cesena,et al.  Multi-criteria decision making for PV deployment on a multinational level , 2016 .

[32]  Joseph Mutale,et al.  Decision support system for ranking photovoltaic technologies , 2013 .

[33]  Yildiz Esra Albayrak,et al.  Renewable Energy Perspective for Turkey Using Sustainability Indicators , 2015, Int. J. Comput. Intell. Syst..

[34]  Majid Vafaeipour,et al.  Assessment of regions priority for implementation of solar projects in Iran: New application of a hybrid multi-criteria decision making approach , 2014 .

[35]  Eligius M. T. Hendrix,et al.  On solving the Best-Worst Method in multi-criteria decision-making ⁎ , 2018 .

[36]  Veronica Campos-Guzman,et al.  Life Cycle Analysis with Multi-Criteria Decision Making: A review of approaches for the sustainability evaluation of renewable energy technologies , 2019, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[37]  K. Kaygusuz,et al.  Environmental Impacts of the Solar Energy Systems , 2009 .

[38]  Mehran Ameri,et al.  Technical and economic assessments of grid-connected photovoltaic power plants: Iran case study , 2016 .

[39]  V. Stevanovic,et al.  Sustainable development of the Belgrade energy system , 2009 .

[40]  Mevlut Uyan GIS-based solar farms site selection using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in Karapinar region, Konya/Turkey , 2013 .

[41]  Didier Beloin-Saint-Pierre,et al.  Environmental Impacts of Solar Thermal Systems with Life Cycle Assessment , 2011 .

[42]  António Moniz,et al.  A review of multi-criteria decision making approaches for evaluating energy storage systems for grid applications , 2019, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews.

[43]  Andrés Honrubia-Escribano,et al.  An AHP-based multi-criteria model for sustainable supply chain development in the renewable energy sector , 2020, Expert Syst. Appl..

[44]  Federica Cucchiella,et al.  A Multicriteria Analysis of Photovoltaic Systems: Energetic, Environmental, and Economic Assessments , 2015 .

[45]  R. W. Saaty,et al.  The analytic hierarchy process—what it is and how it is used , 1987 .

[46]  Shahjadi Hisan Farjana,et al.  Environmental Impacts of Solar-Photovoltaic and Solar-Thermal Systems with Life-Cycle Assessment , 2018, Energies.

[47]  Adel Gastli,et al.  PV site suitability analysis using GIS-based spatial fuzzy multi-criteria evaluation , 2011 .

[48]  Marcelle C. McManus,et al.  Environmental consequences of the use of batteries in low carbon systems: The impact of battery production , 2012 .

[49]  Konstantinos D. Patlitzianas,et al.  Assessing the renewable energy producers’ environment in EU accession member states , 2007 .

[50]  Pablo Aragonés-Beltrán,et al.  An ANP-based approach for the selection of photovoltaic solar power plant investment projects , 2010 .

[51]  Lipeng Zhang,et al.  Cost Analysis Of District Heating Compared ToIts Competing Technologies , 2013 .

[52]  Helena Gaspars-Wieloch,et al.  Project Net Present Value estimation under uncertainty , 2019, Central Eur. J. Oper. Res..

[53]  T. Tsoutsos,et al.  Environmental impacts from the solar energy technologies , 2005 .

[54]  Naim Afgan,et al.  MULTI-CRITERIA ASSESSMENT OF NEW AND RENEWABLE ENERGY POWER PLANTS , 2002 .

[55]  Erhan Erkut,et al.  On sensitivity analysis in the analytic hierarchy process , 1991 .

[56]  Radka Vaníčková,et al.  Assessing the implications of EU subsidy policy on renewable energy in Czech Republic , 2015, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy.

[57]  D. Matuszewska,et al.  Monofacial and Bifacial Micro PV Installation as Element of Energy Transition—The Case of Poland , 2021, Energies.

[58]  Roberto Gabbrielli,et al.  Performance and Economic Comparison of Solar Cooling Configurations , 2016 .

[59]  Ron Vreeker,et al.  Selecting an Appropriate Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Technique for Renewable Energy Planning , 2006 .

[60]  M. Ramachandran,et al.  Application of multi-criteria decision making to sustainable energy planning--A review , 2004 .