Climate and environmental effects of electric vehicles versus compressed natural gas vehicles in China: a life-cycle analysis at provincial level.

Electric vehicles (EVs) and compressed natural gas vehicles (CNGVs), which are mainly coal-based and natural gas-based, are the two most widely proposed replacements of gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) in P.R. China. We examine fuel-cycle emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), PM(2.5), PM(10), NO(x), and SO(2) of CNGVs and EVs relative to gasoline ICEVs and hybrids, by Chinese province. CNGVs can currently reduce emissions of GHGs, PM(10), PM(2,5), NO(x), and SO(2) by approximately 6%, 7%, 20%, 18% and 22%, respectively. EVs can reduce GHG emissions by 20%, but increase PM(10), PM(2.5), NO(x), and SO(2) emissions by approximately 360%, 250%, 120%, and 370%, respectively. Nevertheless, results vary significantly by province. Regarding their contribution to national emissions, PM increases from EVs are unimportant, because light-duty passenger vehicles contribute very little to overall PM emissions nationwide (≤0.05%); however, their NO(x) and SO(2) increases are important. Since China is striving to reduce power plant emissions, EVs are expected to have equivalent or even lower SO(2) and NO(x) emissions relative to ICEVs in the future (2030). Before then, however, EVs should be developed according to the cleanness of regional power mixes. This would lower their SO(2) and NO(x) emissions and earn more GHG reduction credits.

[1]  Michael Q. Wang,et al.  Modeling future vehicle sales and stock in China , 2012 .

[2]  Ye Wu,et al.  Total versus urban: Well-to-wheels assessment of criteria pollutant emissions from various vehicle/fuel systems , 2009 .

[3]  Michael Q. Wang,et al.  Life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions of shale gas, natural gas, coal, and petroleum. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[4]  Xianbao Shen,et al.  On-board measurements of emissions from light-duty gasoline vehicles in three mega-cities of China , 2012 .

[5]  Xianbao Shen,et al.  On-board measurements of emissions from diesel trucks in five cities in China , 2012 .

[6]  Kebin He,et al.  Projection of energy use and greenhouse gas emissions by motor vehicles in China: Policy options and impacts , 2012 .

[7]  Jintian Yang,et al.  China's air pollution control calls for sustainable strategy for the use of coal. , 2012, Environmental science & technology.

[8]  Kebin He,et al.  Environmental implication of electric vehicles in China. , 2010, Environmental science & technology.

[9]  Zhiliang Yao,et al.  Fuel consumption rates of passenger cars in China: Labels versus real-world , 2011 .

[10]  Michael Q. Wang,et al.  New energy vehicles in China: policies, demonstration, and progress , 2012, Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change.

[11]  Xunmin Ou,et al.  Scenario analysis on alternative fuel/vehicle for China’s future road transport: Life-cycle energy demand and GHG emissions , 2010 .

[12]  David G. Streets,et al.  Primary anthropogenic aerosol emission trends for China, 1990–2005 , 2011 .

[13]  Kebin He,et al.  Policy: Cleaning China's air , 2012, Nature.

[14]  Daniel Sperling,et al.  China’s soaring vehicle population: Even greater than forecasted? , 2011 .

[15]  G. Carmichael,et al.  Asian emissions in 2006 for the NASA INTEX-B mission , 2009 .