SEABIRDS AND CLIMATE IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT—A SYNTHESIS OF CHANGE

We investigated changes in ocean climate and ecosys tems by reviewing select case histories for seabirds in the California Current ecosystem (CCE) and the transition zone between the CCE and the Gulf of Alaska using data from the early 1970s to the present. We used in formation spanning the entire CCE, from the south (California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigation [CalCOFI]) to the north (Ocean Station Papa/Line P surveys) and colonies sites, to make this assessment. Seabird timing of breeding, productivity, and abundance at sea have changed in ways consistent with predictions under an ocean-warming scenario, but we cannot dismiss the hypothesis that low-frequency variability explains some of these patterns. In contrast, recent reproductive fail ures of auklets and other species cannot be explained by El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) or low-frequency variability. Declining trends in the productivity of murre and auklet “trophic chains,” including the relative abun dance of mesozooplankton (krill) and forage fish (juve nile Sebastes ) cannot be explained by low- or high(ENSO-scale) frequency climate variability. Changes in relative abundance at sea in the CalCOFI and Line P study areas, however, could be related to change points related to regime shifts in the North Pacific Ocean. Contrasting trends in life history (timing), demographic (productivity), and population (density) patterns by species highlight the need to consider spatial ecology and habi tat quality (food web attributes) in order to develop a deeper understanding of how climate change ‐ecosystem change is affecting seabirds in the CCE and adjacent North Pacific regions.

[1]  T. J. Lewis,et al.  The History of Farallon Island Marine Bird Populations, 1854-1972 , 1974 .

[2]  Barbara M. Hickey,et al.  The California current system—hypotheses and facts☆ , 1979 .

[3]  Mark L. Tasker,et al.  Counting Seabirds at Sea from Ships: A Review of Methods Employed and a Suggestion for a Standardized Approach , 1984 .

[4]  H. Carter.  Bird Communities at Sea off California: 1975 to 1983 Kenneth T. Briggs W. Breck Tyler David B. Lewis David R. Carlson , 1989 .

[5]  A Bakun,et al.  Global Climate Change and Intensification of Coastal Ocean Upwelling , 1990, Science.

[6]  William J. Sydeman,et al.  Upper trophic level predators indicate interannual negative and positive anomalies in the California Current food web , 1995 .

[7]  F. Chavez,et al.  EXPLORATIONS OF EL NINO EVENTS AND ASSOCIATED BIOLOGICAL POPULATION DYNAMICS OFF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA , 1995 .

[8]  J. Mcgowan,et al.  PLANKTON PATTERNS, CLIMATE, AND CHANGE IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT , 1996 .

[9]  Peter Pyle,et al.  Ocean warming and long-term change in pelagic bird abundance within the California current system , 1996 .

[10]  D. Ainley,et al.  Variation in the diet of Cassin's auklet reveals spatial, seasonal, and decadal occurrence patterns of euphausiids off California, USA , 1996 .

[11]  R. Mendelssohn,et al.  Increased coastal upwelling in the California Current System , 1997 .

[12]  J. Wallace,et al.  A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production , 1997 .

[13]  T. Hayward,et al.  Pacific Ocean climate change: atmospheric forcing, ocean circulation and ecosystem response. , 1997, Trends in ecology & evolution.

[14]  K. Hobson,et al.  Trophic Relationships among Seabirds in Central California: Combined Stable Isotope and Conventional Dietary Approach , 1997 .

[15]  D. Cayan,et al.  Climate-Ocean Variability and Ecosystem Response in the Northeast Pacific , 1998, Science.

[16]  W. Sydeman,et al.  Survival, breeding probability and reproductive success in relation to population dynamics of Brandt's Cormorants Phalacrocorax penicillatus , 1999 .

[17]  Steven R. Hare,et al.  Empirical evidence for North Pacific regime shifts in 1977 and 1989 , 2000 .

[18]  S. Levitus,et al.  Warming of the World Ocean , 2000 .

[19]  D. Ainley,et al.  Variable responses of seabirds to change in marine climate: California Current, 1985-1994 , 2001 .

[20]  D. Mackas,et al.  The seasonal cycle revisited: interannual variation and ecosystem consequences , 2001 .

[21]  William J. Sydeman,et al.  Climate change, reproductive performance and diet composition of marine birds in the southern California Current system, 1969-1997 , 2001 .

[22]  R. Mendelssohn,et al.  Common and uncommon trends in SST and wind stress in the California and Peru-Chile current systems , 2002 .

[23]  P. A. Clark,et al.  Extraction of a weak climatic signal by an ecosystem , 2002, Nature.

[24]  N. Bond,et al.  Recent shifts in the state of the North Pacific , 2003 .

[25]  F. Schwing,et al.  A new climate regime in northeast pacific ecosystems , 2003 .

[26]  Franklin B. Schwing,et al.  Spatial structure of subsurface temperature variability in the California Current, 1950–1993 , 2003 .

[27]  Steven J. Bograd,et al.  The biological response to the 1977 regime shift in the California Current , 2003 .

[28]  S. Bograd,et al.  Long-term variability in the Southern California Current System , 2003 .

[29]  Edward Brinton,et al.  Decadal variability in abundances of the dominant euphausiid species in southern sectors of the California Current , 2003 .

[30]  Richard R. Veit,et al.  Ocean warming and seabird communities of the southern California Current System (1987–98): response at multiple temporal scales , 2003 .

[31]  Francisco P. Chavez,et al.  From Anchovies to Sardines and Back: Multidecadal Change in the Pacific Ocean , 2003, Science.

[32]  R. Mendelssohn,et al.  Long-term and seasonal trends in stratification in the California Current, 1950--1993 , 2004 .

[33]  W. Sydeman,et al.  Rockfish response to low-frequency ocean climate change as revealed by the diet of a marine bird over multiple time scales , 2004 .

[34]  W. Sydeman,et al.  Ocean climate, euphausiids and auklet nesting: inter-annual trends and variation in phenology, diet and growth of a planktivorous seabird, Ptychoramphus aleuticus , 2004 .

[35]  Ransom A. Myers,et al.  When Do Environment–recruitment Correlations Work? , 1998, Reviews in Fish Biology and Fisheries.

[36]  James C. McWilliams,et al.  The Warming of the California Current System: Dynamics and Ecosystem Implications , 2005 .

[37]  Grégory Beaugrand,et al.  Monitoring pelagic ecosystems using plankton indicators , 2005 .

[38]  W. Sydeman,et al.  Top predator distribution and abundance across the eastern Gulf of Alaska: Temporal variability and ocean habitat associations , 2005 .

[39]  J. Reynolds,et al.  Climate Change and Distribution Shifts in Marine Fishes , 2005, Science.

[40]  D. Ware,et al.  Bottom-Up Ecosystem Trophic Dynamics Determine Fish Production in the Northeast Pacific , 2005, Science.

[41]  W. Sydeman,et al.  Primary producer and seabird associations with AVHRR-derived sea surface temperatures and gradients in the southeastern Gulf of Alaska , 2006 .

[42]  W. Peterson,et al.  Copepod biodiversity as an indicator of changes in ocean and climate conditions of the northern California current ecosystem , 2006 .

[43]  William J. Sydeman,et al.  Spring-time distributions of migratory marine birds in the southern California Current: Oceanic eddy associations and coastal habitat hotspots over 17 years , 2006 .

[44]  Russell W. Bradley,et al.  Planktivorous auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus responses to ocean climate, 2005: Unusual atmospheric blocking? , 2006 .

[45]  William J. Sydeman,et al.  Prey-switching by Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus reveals seasonal climate-related cycles of Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera , 2006 .

[46]  C. Parmesan.  Ecological and Evolutionary Responses to Recent Climate Change , 2006 .

[47]  F. Chavez,et al.  SECULAR WARMING IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT AND NORTH PACIFIC , 2006 .

[48]  M. Ohman,et al.  Planktonic Foraminifera of the California Current Reflect 20th-Century Warming , 2006, Science.

[49]  A. Hedd,et al.  Effects of interdecadal climate variability on marine trophic interactions: rhinoceros auklets and their fish prey , 2006 .

[50]  W. Sydeman,et al.  Spatio-temporal variability in prey harvest and reproductive ecology of a piscivorous seabird, Cerorhinca monocerata, in an upwelling system , 2007 .

[51]  Suzann G. Speckman,et al.  Seabirds as indicators of marine food supplies: Cairns revisited , 2007 .

[52]  A. Seth,et al.  Global climate change: An introduction and results from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) , 2007 .

[53]  M. Ohman,et al.  Coherence of long-term variations of zooplankton in two sectors of the California Current System , 2007 .

[54]  S. Batten,et al.  Effects on zooplankton of a warmer ocean: Recent evidence from the Northeast Pacific , 2007 .

[55]  Thomas E. Laidig,et al.  Diets of top predators indicate pelagic juvenile rockfish (Sebastes spp.) abundance in the California Current System , 2007 .

[56]  W. Sydeman,et al.  Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) — seabird covariation off central California and possible forecasting applications , 2007 .

[57]  Derek E. Lee,et al.  Climate and demography of the planktivorous Cassin's auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus off northern California: implications for population change. , 2007, The Journal of animal ecology.

[58]  A. Maccall,et al.  Population dynamics of an unexploited rockfish (Sebastes jordani) in the California current , 2007 .

[59]  James C. McWilliams,et al.  North Pacific Gyre Oscillation links ocean climate and ecosystem change , 2008 .

[60]  R. Rykaczewski,et al.  Influence of ocean winds on the pelagic ecosystem in upwelling regions , 2008, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[61]  P. Warzybok,et al.  Annual prey consumption of a dominant seabird, the common murre, in the California Current system , 2008 .

[62]  A. Richardson.  In hot water: zooplankton and climate change , 2008 .

[63]  A. Richardson,et al.  Under-Resourced, Under Threat , 2008, Science.

[64]  W. Sydeman,et al.  Seabird–sockeye salmon co-variation in the eastern Bering Sea: Phenology as an ecosystem indicator and salmonid predictor? , 2008 .

[65]  Franklin B. Schwing,et al.  Untangling the relationships among climate, prey and top predators in an ocean ecosystem , 2008 .

[66]  F. Mueter,et al.  Sea ice retreat alters the biogeography of the Bering Sea continental shelf. , 2008, Ecological applications : a publication of the Ecological Society of America.

[67]  W. Sydeman,et al.  Range-wide reproductive consequences of ocean climate variability for the seabird Cassin's Auklet. , 2009, Ecology.

[68]  S. Bograd,et al.  Winter pre-conditioning of seabird phenology in the California Current , 2009 .

[69]  Joëlle Gergis,et al.  A history of ENSO events since A.D. 1525: implications for future climate change , 2009 .

[70]  J. Hipfner.  Euphausiids in the diet of a North Pacific seabird: annual and seasonal variation and the role of ocean climate , 2009 .

[71]  G. Sugihara,et al.  Climate‐driven changes in abundance and distribution of larvae of oceanic fishes in the southern California region , 2009 .

[72]  D. Doak,et al.  Predicting population consequences of ocean climate change for an ecosystem sentinel, the seabird Cassin's auklet , 2010 .