COMPARISON OF MODELS FOR ESTIMATING FLOOD QUANTILES IN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT 1

We develop and compare three regression models for estimating flood quantiles at ungaged stream reaches in New Hampshire and Vermont. These models emerge from systematic analysis and validation of relations between flood magnitude and six candidate predictors reflecting basin size, topography, and climate and channel size at 36 gaging stations with record lengths exceeding 20 years. Of the candidate predictors, bank full width is most highly correlated with flood magnitude and the best prediction equation is based on width. Thus channel geometry is closely related to the current hydrologic regime in spite of geologically recent glaciation and apparently non‐alluvial bank materials. We also develop models that use information obtainable from maps or GIS. The best of these uses drainage area and drainage‐basin elevation as predictors, but it is substantially less precise than the width‐based relation. A third relation using only drainage area as a predictor is even less precise but may be useful for some purposes. No other single predictors or combinations yielded useful predictions, although some had been included in previously‐established models for the region. Model comparison included examination of residuals generated by regression using one‐at‐a‐time suppression of data points and comparison with precision obtainable with gaging records of varying lengths.