Stochastic Population Models

Deterministic models dominated theory in ecology for much of its history despite recognition of the role of unpredictable environmental factors in population dynamics (Hutchinson, 1951, 1961; Andrewartha and Birch, 1954, 1984; Grubb, 1977, 1986; Sale, 1977; Wiens, 1977, 1986; Connell, 1978; Hubbell, 1979, 1980; Murdoch, 1979; Connell and Sousa, 1983; Sale and Douglas, 1984; Strong, 1984, 1986). Mathematical techniques for stochastic modeling were poorly developed and poorly understood. As a consequence, most ecological thinking about the role of stochastic factors was purely intuitive. Progress in stochastic population and community models has now allowed rigorous deduction to replace intuition. This progress has shown more complicated and intricate roles for stochastic factors than previously invisaged; but as is shown in this chapter, once elucidated, these roles can be understood intuitively.

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