Do Sea Surface Temperatures Influence Catch Rates in the June South Peninsula, Alaska, Salmon Fishery?

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on sockeye salmon catch per unit effort (CPUE) for the June south Alaska Peninsula fishery and on the run size of the western Alaska sockeye salmon was investigated for the period 1975-2008. CPUE was positively related to the size of the western Alaska sockeye salmon run but not to SST over the pooled time period. Time-stratified analysis before and after 1994/1993 revealed significant negative relations between the June fishery CPUE and winter and spring SST in the area to the east of the fishery. There were positive relations between the size of the western Alaska run and SST for temperature time series in the central Bering Sea, eastern Aleutian Islands, and between Kodiak and the Shumagin islands for one- and two-year lags prior to the adult return. Time-stratified analysis showed that there were significant changes in the influence of temperature on the June fishery CPUE and in the size of the western Alaska run. Combined the results suggest that warming temperatures in the Bering Sea have shifted regions of importance to the west for all ocean ages.

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