Electricity Tariff Linkage Modeling Research Based on ARCH

Before the formation of power retail market,the linkage mechanism of electricity tariff and system marginal price has great significance to the risk reduction of the fluctuation of system marginal price.According to the analysis of the risk,this paper proposes a new method to mechanism modeling that based on the response of customer demands.First,the models provide power customers with prospective linkage degree so that it makes the customers be more active in the linkage progress of electricity tariff.These activities can be more helpful to exert the leverage adjust function of electricity tariff to power demand.This function will regulate the fluctuation of system marginal price and reduce the linkage risk that is induced by the time lag between electricity tariff linkage regulation and the fluctuation of system marginal price.And also considering the risk,this paper provides detailed analysis of the fluctuation of system marginal price using auto regressive conditional heteroskedasticity(ARCH)models.Finally,the paper builds risk linkage analysis model and input related data to the model to do the example analysis.