Projecting ozone hole recovery using an ensemble of chemistry–climate models weighted by model performance and independence
暂无分享,去创建一个
M. Kunze | J. Lamarque | N. Abraham | S. Tilmes | D. Kinnison | K. Sudo | P. Young | D. Plummer | A. Archibald | S. Bekki | D. Saint‐Martin | M. Marchand | M. Deushi | P. Jöckel | Matt Amos | J. Hosking | H. Akiyoshi | O. Kirner | Y. Yamashita
[1] S. Dhomse,et al. Description and Evaluation of the specified-dynamics experiment in the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative , 2020, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
[2] R. Knutti,et al. Quantifying uncertainty in European climate projections using combined performance-independence weighting , 2019, Environmental Research Letters.
[3] M. Chipperfield,et al. On the Regional and Seasonal Ozone Depletion Potential of Chlorinated Very Short‐Lived Substances , 2019, Geophysical Research Letters.
[4] R. Weiss,et al. Increase in CFC-11 emissions from eastern China based on atmospheric observations , 2019, Nature.
[5] R. Knutti,et al. Ensemble optimisation, multiple constraints and overconfidence: a case study with future Australian precipitation change , 2019, Climate Dynamics.
[6] S. Dhomse,et al. The effect of atmospheric nudging on the stratospheric residual circulation in chemistry–climate models , 2019, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
[7] S. Dhomse,et al. Recent Trends in Stratospheric Chlorine From Very Short‐Lived Substances , 2019, Journal of geophysical research. Atmospheres : JGR.
[8] J. D. Laat,et al. Polar stratospheric ozone: Past, present and future , 2019 .
[9] Robert Pincus,et al. ESD Reviews: Model dependence in multi-model climate ensembles: weighting, sub-selection and out-of-sample testing , 2018, Earth System Dynamics.
[10] S. Dhomse,et al. Estimates of ozone return dates from Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative simulations , 2018, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.
[11] A. Leeson,et al. Cluster-based analysis of multi-model climate ensembles , 2018, Geoscientific Model Development.
[12] J. Daniel,et al. An unexpected and persistent increase in global emissions of ozone-depleting CFC-11 , 2018, Nature.
[13] E. Fischer,et al. Prospects and Caveats of Weighting Climate Models for Summer Maximum Temperature Projections Over North America , 2018 .
[14] Julien Boé,et al. Interdependency in Multimodel Climate Projections: Component Replication and Result Similarity , 2018 .
[15] J. Haigh,et al. Evidence for a continuous decline in lower stratospheric ozone offsetting ozone layer recovery , 2018 .
[16] Jessica L. Neu,et al. Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report:Assessment of global-scale model performance for global and regional ozone distributions, variability, and trends , 2018 .
[17] J. Lamarque,et al. Large-scale tropospheric transport in the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) simulations , 2017 .
[18] S. Dhomse,et al. Detecting recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer , 2017, Nature.
[19] Andrew Gettelman,et al. The Art and Science of Climate Model Tuning , 2017 .
[20] Ruth Lorenz,et al. A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence , 2017 .
[21] Andrea Stenke,et al. Review of the global models used within phase 1 of the Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) , 2017 .
[22] Rolando R. Garcia,et al. Modification of the Gravity Wave Parameterization in the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model: Motivation and Results , 2017 .
[23] S. Barnett,et al. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A : Mathematical , 2017 .
[24] R. Knutti,et al. Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments , 2016 .
[25] Anja Schmidt,et al. Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer , 2016, Science.
[26] D. Fahey,et al. Diverse policy implications for future ozone and surface UV in a changing climate , 2016 .
[27] P. Braesicke,et al. Future Arctic ozone recovery: the importance of chemistry and dynamics , 2016 .
[28] M. Shiotani,et al. A nudged chemistry‐climate model simulation of chemical constituent distribution at northern high‐latitude stratosphere observed by SMILES and MLS during the 2009/2010 stratospheric sudden warming , 2016 .
[29] Veronika Eyring,et al. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization , 2015 .
[30] N. Gillett. Weighting climate model projections using observational constraints , 2015, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.
[31] Volker Grewe,et al. Earth System Chemistry integrated Modelling (ESCiMo) with the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) version 2.51 , 2015 .
[32] O. Wild,et al. Stratospheric ozone change and related climate impacts over 1850–2100 as modelled by the ACCMIP ensemble , 2015 .
[33] Rolando R. Garcia,et al. Simulation of polar ozone depletion: An update , 2015 .
[34] M. Kageyama,et al. Evaluation of CMIP5 palaeo-simulations to improve climate projections , 2015 .
[35] Reto Knutti,et al. A Representative Democracy to Reduce Interdependency in a Multimodel Ensemble , 2015 .
[36] Reto Knutti,et al. Addressing interdependency in a multimodel ensemble by interpolation of model properties , 2015 .
[37] M. Genton,et al. Validation of CMIP5 multimodel ensembles through the smoothness of climate variables , 2015 .
[38] A. Pitman,et al. Weighting climate model ensembles for mean and variance estimates , 2015, Climate Dynamics.
[39] J. Lamarque,et al. Description and evaluation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols in the Community Earth System Model (CESM1.2) , 2014 .
[40] K. Sudo,et al. Roles of transport and chemistry processes in global ozone change on interannual and multidecadal time scales , 2014 .
[41] J. Lamarque,et al. Interactive comment on “ Description and evaluation of tropospheric chemistry and aerosols in the Community Earth System Model ( CESM 1 . 2 ) ” , 2022 .
[42] W. Collins,et al. Evaluation of climate models , 2013 .
[43] H. Tost,et al. Uncertainties in future climate predictions due to convection parameterisations , 2013 .
[44] Daniel R. Marsh,et al. Climate change from 1850 to 2005 simulated in CESM1(WACCM) , 2013 .
[45] Chikako Takahashi,et al. Validation of ozone data from the Superconducting Submillimeter‐Wave Limb‐Emission Sounder (SMILES) , 2013 .
[46] E. Guilyardi,et al. ENSO representation in climate models: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.
[47] Reto Knutti,et al. Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there , 2013 .
[48] S. Bony,et al. Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.
[49] P. Kushner,et al. Agreement in late twentieth century Southern Hemisphere stratospheric temperature trends in observations and CCMVal‐2, CMIP3, and CMIP5 models , 2013 .
[50] H. Tsujino,et al. Basic performance of a new earth system model of the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI-ESM1) , 2013 .
[51] H. Douville,et al. The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation , 2013, Climate Dynamics.
[52] J. Dufresne,et al. Aerosol and ozone changes as forcing for climate evolution between 1850 and 2100 , 2013, Climate Dynamics.
[53] K. Sudo,et al. Role of meteorological variability in global tropospheric ozone during 1970–2008 , 2012 .
[54] E. Wood,et al. On the clustering of climate models in ensemble seasonal forecasting , 2012 .
[55] J. Lamarque,et al. The Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP): overview and description of models, simulations and climate diagnostics , 2012 .
[56] A. Ravishankara,et al. Stratospheric ozone depletion due to nitrous oxide: influences of other gases , 2012, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences.
[57] J. Lamarque,et al. Changes in Stratospheric Temperatures and Their Implications for Changes in the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, 1979-2005 , 2012 .
[58] F. Hourdin,et al. Dynamical amplification of the stratospheric solar response simulated with the Chemistry-Climate Model LMDz-Reprobus , 2012 .
[59] H. Tsujino,et al. A New Global Climate Model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3 —Model Description and Basic Performance— , 2012 .
[60] Paul Poli,et al. The ERA-Interim archive, version 2.0 , 2011 .
[61] P. Kushner,et al. Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in Southern Hemisphere surface climate change , 2011 .
[62] B. Josse,et al. A new version of the CNRM Chemistry-Climate Model, CNRM-CCM: description and improvements from the CCMVal-2 simulations , 2011 .
[63] S. Emori,et al. MIROC-ESM 2010: model description and basic results of CMIP5-20c3m experiments , 2011 .
[64] A. Thomson,et al. The representative concentration pathways: an overview , 2011 .
[65] M. Deushi,et al. Development of a Meteorological Research Institute Chemistry-Climate Model version 2 for the Study of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Chemistry , 2011 .
[66] T. Takemura,et al. Geoscientific Model Development MIROC-ESM 2010 : model description and basic results of CMIP 5-20 c 3 m experiments , 2011 .
[67] Patrick Jöckel,et al. Development cycle 2 of the Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy2) , 2010 .
[68] F. Giorgi,et al. Weight assignment in regional climate models , 2010 .
[69] Veronika Eyring,et al. Chemistry-Climate Model Simulations of Twenty- First Century Stratospheric Climate and Circulation Changes , 2010 .
[70] Veronika Eyring,et al. Multi-model assessment of stratospheric ozone return dates and ozone recovery in CCMVal-2 models , 2010 .
[71] David S. Lee,et al. Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application , 2010 .
[72] Jouni Räisänen,et al. Weighting of model results for improving best estimates of climate change , 2010 .
[73] W. Landman. Climate change 2007: the physical science basis , 2010 .
[74] Reto Knutti,et al. Challenges in Combining Projections from Multiple Climate Models , 2010 .
[75] D. Stephenson,et al. Estimates of past and future ozone trends from multimodel simulations using a flexible smoothing spline methodology , 2010 .
[76] Reto Knutti,et al. The end of model democracy? , 2010 .
[77] P. Bernath,et al. Global OZone Chemistry And Related trace gas Data records for the Stratosphere (GOZCARDS) , 2015 .
[78] Paul Berrisford,et al. The ERA-Interim Archive , 2009 .
[79] Carl A. Mears,et al. Construction of the Remote Sensing Systems V3.2 Atmospheric Temperature Records from the MSU and AMSU Microwave Sounders , 2009 .
[80] S. Solomon,et al. Understanding Recent Stratospheric Climate Change , 2009 .
[81] J. A. Pyle,et al. Geoscientific Model Development Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model – Part 1 : The stratosphere , 2009 .
[82] William J. Collins,et al. Evaluation of the new UKCA climate-composition model – Part 2: The Troposphere , 2008 .
[83] David A. Plummer,et al. Technical Note: The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere , 2008 .
[84] V. Eyring,et al. Quantitative performance metrics for stratospheric-resolving chemistry-climate models , 2008 .
[85] K. Taylor,et al. Evaluating the present‐day simulation of clouds, precipitation, and radiation in climate models , 2008 .
[86] T. Shepherd,et al. The Impact of Stratospheric Ozone Recovery on the Southern Hemisphere Westerly Jet , 2008, Science.
[87] David A. Plummer,et al. The CCCma third generation AGCM and its extension into the middle atmosphere , 2008 .
[88] Steven Pawson,et al. Impact of stratospheric ozone hole recovery on Antarctic climate , 2008 .
[89] Charles Doutriaux,et al. Performance metrics for climate models , 2008 .
[90] T. Reichler,et al. How Well Do Coupled Models Simulate Today's Climate? , 2008 .
[91] T. Shepherd,et al. Overview of the New CCMVal reference and sensitivity simulations in support of upcoming ozone and climate assessments and the planned SPARC CCMVal report , 2008 .
[92] Reto Knutti,et al. The use of the multi-model ensemble in probabilistic climate projections , 2007, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences.
[93] K. Sudo,et al. Global source attribution of tropospheric ozone: Long-range transport from various source regions , 2007 .
[94] Volker Grewe,et al. Assessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past , 2006 .
[95] H. Eskes,et al. Indicators of Antarctic ozone depletion , 2005 .
[96] Richard L. Smith,et al. Quantifying Uncertainty in Projections of Regional Climate Change: A Bayesian Approach to the Analysis of Multimodel Ensembles , 2005 .
[97] J. C. McConnell,et al. Doubled CO2‐induced cooling in the middle atmosphere: Photochemical analysis of the ozone radiative feedback , 2004 .
[98] Guosheng Liu,et al. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan(JMSJ) , 2004 .
[99] K. Sudo,et al. CHASER: A global chemical model of the troposphere 1. Model description , 2002 .
[100] F. Giorgi,et al. Calculation of average, uncertainty range, and reliability of regional climate changes from AOGCM simulations via the reliability ensemble averaging (REA) method , 2002 .
[101] David W. J. Thompson,et al. Interpretation of Recent Southern Hemisphere Climate Change , 2002, Science.
[102] Stanley C. Solomon,et al. Stratospheric ozone depletion: A review of concepts and history , 1999 .
[103] 気象庁気象研究所. 気象研究所技術報告 = Technical reports of the Meteorological Research Institute , 1978 .