Analysis of epidemic outbreaks in two-layer networks with different structures for information spreading and disease diffusion

Abstract A two-layer susceptible-infected-recovered/unaware-aware (SIR-UA) epidemic model is presented to analyze the effect of different heterogeneous networks in a population. Random, scale-free, and small-world network topologies are tested to investigate the impact of awareness on the spread of epidemics in a two-layer network with diverse combinations of degree and structure. Susceptible and infected (both unaware and aware) individuals are associated with their neighboring nodes in a social network structure with various degree distributions. In the two-layer SIR-UA epidemic model, a virtual network represents the connections that spread information, while a physical network represents the physical social interactions that spread diseases. We test various combinations of network structures in virtual or physical networks, to understand the impact of information diffusion on the spread of epidemics in a heterogeneous network structure. Then, the effects of awareness on the spread of a disease are discussed. Finally, phase diagrams are illustrated to reveal the final regions covered by an epidemic with various network parameters. We find that a disease spreads less if the virtual social network is more connected than the network of physical connections.

[1]  Duncan J. Watts,et al.  Collective dynamics of ‘small-world’ networks , 1998, Nature.

[2]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks. , 2001, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[3]  Zhi-Hong Guan,et al.  A stochastic SIR epidemic on scale-free network with community structure , 2013 .

[4]  Jun Tanimoto,et al.  Effect of information spreading to suppress the disease contagion on the epidemic vaccination game , 2019, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals.

[5]  WILLIAM GOFFMAN,et al.  Generalization of Epidemic Theory: An Application to the Transmission of Ideas , 1964, Nature.

[6]  Romualdo Pastor-Satorras,et al.  Effect of risk perception on epidemic spreading in temporal networks , 2017, Physical review. E.

[7]  Chenquan Gan,et al.  The effect of social tie on information diffusion in complex networks , 2018, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

[8]  Albert,et al.  Emergence of scaling in random networks , 1999, Science.

[9]  Thilo Gross,et al.  Epidemic dynamics on an adaptive network. , 2005, Physical review letters.

[10]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Epidemic dynamics in finite size scale-free networks. , 2002, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[11]  Jun Tanimoto,et al.  Influence of breaking the symmetry between disease transmission and information propagation networks on stepwise decisions concerning vaccination , 2015 .

[12]  M. Salathé,et al.  The effect of opinion clustering on disease outbreaks , 2008, Journal of The Royal Society Interface.

[13]  Jun Tanimoto,et al.  Which is more effective for suppressing an infectious disease: imperfect vaccination or defense against contagion? , 2018 .

[14]  Huaiping Zhu,et al.  The Impact of Media on the Control of Infectious Diseases , 2007, Journal of dynamics and differential equations.

[15]  Jie Zhang,et al.  Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks , 2016, PloS one.

[16]  Yup Kim,et al.  Epidemic spreading in annealed directed networks: susceptible-infected-susceptible model and contact process. , 2013, Physical review. E, Statistical, nonlinear, and soft matter physics.

[17]  Y. Moreno,et al.  Epidemic outbreaks in complex heterogeneous networks , 2001, cond-mat/0107267.

[18]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Dynamical Processes on Complex Networks , 2008 .

[19]  Michael Small,et al.  The impact of awareness on epidemic spreading in networks , 2012, Chaos.

[20]  C. Watkins,et al.  The spread of awareness and its impact on epidemic outbreaks , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[21]  Alessandro Vespignani,et al.  Epidemic spreading in scale-free networks. , 2000, Physical review letters.

[22]  Jun Tanimoto,et al.  Analysis of SIR epidemic model with information spreading of awareness , 2019, Chaos, Solitons & Fractals.

[23]  Reuven Cohen,et al.  Complex Networks: Structure, Robustness and Function , 2010 .

[24]  Albert-László Barabási,et al.  Statistical mechanics of complex networks , 2001, ArXiv.

[25]  Sergio Gómez,et al.  On the dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks , 2013, Physical review letters.

[26]  B. Bollobás The evolution of random graphs , 1984 .

[27]  Jun Tanimoto,et al.  Impact of imperfect vaccination and defense against contagion on vaccination behavior in complex networks , 2018, Journal of Statistical Mechanics: Theory and Experiment.

[28]  Jane M. Heffernan,et al.  The Effects of Media Reports on Disease Spread and Important Public Health Measurements , 2015, PloS one.