An analysis of growth patterns in computer conferencing threads

Threads in a computer conferencing systems develop in seemingly unpredictable ways. Each time someone starts a new discussion or extends an existing line of thought, there is a subtle shift in the intellectual spotlight n a shift that influences the contribution patterns of subsequent users. Active threads may unexpectedly fade to the background, and older, inactive threads may regain centre stage. Yet within this complex ebb and flow, there are certain indicators that help predict a thread's future. An analysis of the 1571 threads in 7 distance education conferences reveals patterns of development that can be used to statistically assign growth probabilities to individual threads. Possible applications of these findings are discussed.