Geospatial probabilistic modelling for release area mapping of snow avalanches

Abstract This paper presents GIS-based mapping of snow avalanche release areas using probabilistic occurrence ratio (POR) model. The proposed method utilized the topographical and avalanche occurrence dataset. The avalanche occurrence topographical factors such as slope, aspect, curvature and elevation generated from ASTER-GDEM V2 whereas vegetation cover from Landsat 8 OLI were considered in the proposed model. An avalanche inventory map of avalanche occurrence locations was prepared for training and validation of the model. From avalanche inventory map, 80% of avalanche occurrence data for training and remaining 20% was used for validation of the model. Finally, avalanche release area map was generated using the POR model and classified into five categories based on the Jenks natural break method. The RA-index and ROC-AUC methods were used for validation of the avalanche release area map. The validation accuracy of the model is confirmed as 92.41% and 89.13% as per success and prediction rates.

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