NON‐STATIONARITY IN DAILY PRECIPITATION SERIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR GCM DOWN‐SCALING USING ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION INDICES

The paper addresses three issues relating to the design and calibration of precipitation models for down-scaling General Circulation Model (GCM) output. First, the significance of non-stationary daily circulation-pattern–precipitation relationships will be described for two UK sites, each with records beginning in 1881. Second, the cause(s) of the observed non-stationarity will be investigated using lengthy air flow, synoptic, temperature, and standardized teleconnection indices. Third, the prospects for incorporating these factors within down-scaling methods will be discussed with reference to several alternative techniques. Finally, a multivariate approach incorporating teleconnection and airflow indices within precipitation models is advocated. © 1997 by the Royal Meteorological Society. Int. J. Climatol. 17, 439–454 (1997).