Research on combination forecast of port cargo throughput based on time series and causality analysis

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to develop a combined model composed of greyforecast model and Logistic-growth-curve model to improve the accuracy of forecast model of cargo throughput for the port. The authors also use the existing data of a current port to verify the validity of the combined model. Design/methodology/approach: A literature review is undertaken to find the appropriate forecast model of cargo throughput for the port. Through researching the related forecast model, the authors put together the individual models which are significant to study further. Finally, the authors combine two individual models (grey-forecast model and Logistic-growthcurve model) into one combined model to forecast the port cargo throughput, and use the model to a physical port in China to testify the validity of the model.