Forecasting Climate Change Scenarios in the Bago River Basin, Myanmar

This study aims to forecast the climate change scenarios of Bago River Basin in Myanmar. A delta change method was used to correct the bias of maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation. The future projection period from 2010-2100 is classified into 2020s (2010-2039), 2050s (2040-2069), and 2080s (2070-2099) for analyzing meteorological parameters under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. It is observed that average annual maximum and minimum temperatures are projected to rise in the entire basin under both scenarios — most significantly in the 2080s. Average summer temperature is projected to decrease by approximately 0.25°C in the first century period under both RCPs. However winter season witnessed an increase in average temperature of 1.5-2.5°C, following by the rainy season with increase of average temperature of 0.9-2.6°C in future. Average annual precipitation shows a distinct increase in all three periods with the greatest upturn in the 2050s. Winter season is projected to receive more precipitation for both scenarios with an average increase of approximately 200 mm, whereas summer season shows the least rainfall change (25 mm) under both future scenarios. The highest mean monthly precipitation occurs in September during the 2020s (933 mm) and in July during the 2080s (868 mm) respectively. The average annual precipitation is projected to be at maximum in the 2020s (4085 mm, 40% increase) for RCP4.5 and in the 2050s (4263 mm, 43% increase) under RCP8.5.

[1]  IPCC Working Group 1 Third Assessment Report , 2001 .

[2]  H. L. Miller,et al.  Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis , 2007 .

[3]  B. Bates,et al.  Climate change and water: technical paper of the intergovernmental panel on climate change , 2008 .

[4]  B. Bates,et al.  Climate change and water. , 2008 .

[5]  K. T. Hlaing,et al.  Using GIS-based distributed soil loss modeling and morphometric analysis to prioritize watershed for soil conservation in Bago river basin of Lower Myanmar , 2008 .

[6]  Keith A. Cherkauer,et al.  Hydrologic Impacts of Projected Future Climate Change in the Lake Michigan Region , 2009 .

[7]  S. Hagemann,et al.  Statistical bias correction of global simulated daily precipitation and temperature for the application of hydrological models , 2010 .

[8]  M. Dubey,et al.  CCSM3 simulated regional effects of anthropogenic aerosols for two contrasting scenarios: rising Asian emissions and global reduction of aerosols , 2011 .

[9]  Rashid Mahmood,et al.  Evaluation of SDSM developed by annual and monthly sub-models for downscaling temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum basin, Pakistan and India , 2013, Theoretical and Applied Climatology.

[10]  L. Xiong,et al.  Annual runoff change in the headstream of Yangtze River and its relation to precipitation and air temperature , 2013 .

[11]  Projected 21st century trends in hydroclimatology of the Tahoe Basin , 2013 .

[12]  H. Paeth,et al.  Statistical-dynamical downscaling of present day and future precipitation regimes in the Aksu river catchment in Central Asia , 2013 .

[13]  Chang‐Hoi Ho,et al.  Projected climate regime shift under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario CMIP5 simulations , 2014 .

[14]  M. Babel,et al.  Analysis of future precipitation in the Koshi river basin, Nepal , 2014 .

[15]  Buda Su,et al.  Projected precipitation and streamflow under SRES and RCP emission scenarios in the Songhuajiang River basin, China , 2015 .