Approximate Probabilistic Inference with Bounded Error for Hybrid Probabilistic Logic Programming

Probabilistic logics, especially those based on logic programming (LP), are gaining popularity as modelling and reasoning tools, since they combine the power of logic to represent knowledge with the ability of probability theory to deal with uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a hybrid extension for probabilistic logic programming, which allows for exact inference for a much wider class of continuous distributions than existing extensions. At the same time, our extension allows one to compute approximations with bounded and arbitrarily small error. We propose a novel anytime algorithm exploiting the logical and continuous structure of distributions and experimentally show that our algorithm is, for typical relational problems, competitive with state-of-the-art sampling algorithms and outperforms them by far if rare events with deterministic structure are provided as evidence, despite the fact that it provides much stronger guarantees.

[1]  David Poole,et al.  The Independent Choice Logic and Beyond , 2008, Probabilistic Inductive Logic Programming.

[2]  Luc De Raedt,et al.  Anytime Inference in Probabilistic Logic Programs with Tp-Compilation , 2015, IJCAI.

[3]  Adnan Darwiche,et al.  On probabilistic inference by weighted model counting , 2008, Artif. Intell..

[4]  Judea Pearl,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems - networks of plausible inference , 1991, Morgan Kaufmann series in representation and reasoning.

[5]  Fabrizio Costa,et al.  Link and Node Prediction in Metabolic Networks with Probabilistic Logic , 2010, Bisociative Knowledge Discovery.

[6]  Rupak Majumdar,et al.  Approximate counting in SMT and value estimation for probabilistic programs , 2014, Acta Informatica.

[7]  Peter J. F. Lucas,et al.  A Decision Support Model for Uncertainty Reasoning in Safety and Security Tasks , 2013, 2013 IEEE International Conference on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics.

[8]  Henry A. Kautz,et al.  Heuristics for Fast Exact Model Counting , 2005, SAT.

[9]  Luc De Raedt,et al.  Inference and learning in probabilistic logic programs using weighted Boolean formulas , 2013, Theory and Practice of Logic Programming.

[10]  Stuart J. Russell,et al.  BLOG: Probabilistic Models with Unknown Objects , 2005, IJCAI.

[11]  David Poole,et al.  Logic programming, abduction and probability , 1993, New Generation Computing.

[12]  Rupak Majumdar,et al.  Approximate Counting in SMT and Value Estimation for Probabilistic Programs , 2015, TACAS.

[13]  Luc De Raedt,et al.  Explanation-Based Approximate Weighted Model Counting for Probabilistic Logics , 2014, AAAI.

[14]  Luc De Raedt,et al.  Lazy Explanation-Based Approximation for Probabilistic Logic Programming , 2015, ArXiv.

[15]  Stig K. Andersen,et al.  Probabilistic reasoning in intelligent systems: Networks of plausible inference , 1991 .

[16]  Scott Sanner,et al.  Symbolic Variable Elimination for Discrete and Continuous Graphical Models , 2012, AAAI.

[17]  Guy Van den Broeck,et al.  Hashing-Based Approximate Probabilistic Inference in Hybrid Domains , 2015, UAI.

[18]  C. R. Ramakrishnan,et al.  Inference in probabilistic logic programs with continuous random variables , 2011, Theory and Practice of Logic Programming.

[19]  Guy Van den Broeck,et al.  Probabilistic Inference in Hybrid Domains by Weighted Model Integration , 2015, IJCAI.

[20]  S. Lauritzen Propagation of Probabilities, Means, and Variances in Mixed Graphical Association Models , 1992 .

[21]  Steffen Michels,et al.  Hybrid Probabilistic Logics: Theoretical Aspects, Algorithms and Experiments , 2016 .

[22]  F. Pfenning Theory and Practice of Logic Programming , 2014 .

[23]  Luc De Raedt,et al.  Learning relational affordance models for robots in multi-object manipulation tasks , 2012, 2012 IEEE International Conference on Robotics and Automation.

[24]  Guy Van den Broeck,et al.  Proceedings of the Thirty-First Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, UAI 2015, July 12-16, 2015, Amsterdam, The Netherlands , 2015, UAI.

[25]  Peter J. F. Lucas,et al.  A new probabilistic constraint logic programming language based on a generalised distribution semantics , 2015, Artif. Intell..

[26]  Luc De Raedt,et al.  Extending ProbLog with Continuous Distributions , 2010, ILP.

[27]  Luc De Raedt,et al.  Under Consideration for Publication in Theory and Practice of Logic Programming the Magic of Logical Inference in Probabilistic Programming , 2022 .