The potential role of forecasting for integrating solar generation into the Australian National Electricity Market

The future construction of utility-scale solar power plants in Australia will present challenges to integrate these plants into the existing electricity industry. This paper considers the likely solar forecasting requirements to facilitate the integration of photovoltaic and concentrating solar thermal plants into the Australian National Electricity Market (NEM). Many market participants may benefit from reliable solar forecasts, but they will have different requirements for accuracy and forecasting horizon. The current state of solar forecasting techniques worldwide is briefly reviewed. Electricity market designs in Europe (in particular, the Spanish day-ahead market) have promoted research in solar forecasting. In Australia, the Bureau of Meteorology is producing solar irradiance forecasts from its current weather forecasting system, and there are growing efforts to develop useful solar forecasts. Nevertheless, there is much further work to be done to integrate solar generators into the NEM, including evaluating the accuracy of solar forecasts, better characterising the solar resource and understanding how forecasting accuracy can improve plant economics and power system operation.