Does higher surface temperature intensify extreme precipitation?

[1] Recently, against the backdrop of current climate, several regional studies have investigated the applicability of the Clausius–Clapeyron relation to the scaling relationship between extreme precipitation intensity and surface air temperature. Nevertheless, the temperature relationship of the extreme precipitation intensity on a global scale is still unclear. We assess, for the first time, the global relationship between the extreme daily precipitation intensity and the daily surface air temperature using in-situ data. The extreme daily precipitation intensity increased monotonically with the daily surface air temperature at high latitudes and decreased monotonically in the tropics. Similarly, the extreme daily precipitation intensity at middle latitudes increased at low temperatures and decreased at high temperatures; this decrease could be largely attributed to the decrease in the wet-event duration. The Clausius–Clapeyron scaling is applicable to the increase in the extreme daily precipitation intensity in a limited number of regions. However, the potential applicability of the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling on sub-hourly timescale was observed, even in regions where the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling on daily timescale was not applicable. This implies the potential of warming to intensify extreme precipitation on sub-hourly timescales.

[1]  J. Haerter,et al.  Unexpected rise in extreme precipitation caused by a shift in rain type? , 2009, Nature Geoscience.

[2]  K. Trenberth,et al.  The changing character of precipitation , 2003 .

[3]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes , 2011, Nature.

[4]  G. Lenderink,et al.  Increase in hourly precipitation extremes beyond expectations from temperature changes , 2008 .

[5]  J. Haerter,et al.  Unexpected increase in precipitation intensity with temperature — A result of mixing of precipitation types? , 2013 .

[6]  Peter Berg,et al.  Seasonal characteristics of the relationship between daily precipitation intensity and surface temperature , 2009 .

[7]  W. Cleveland Robust Locally Weighted Regression and Smoothing Scatterplots , 1979 .

[8]  Ashish Sharma,et al.  Observed relationships between extreme sub‐daily precipitation, surface temperature, and relative humidity , 2010 .

[9]  S. Solomon The Physical Science Basis : Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007 .

[10]  S. Emori,et al.  Precipitation extreme changes exceeding moisture content increases in MIROC and IPCC climate models , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

[11]  P. Stott,et al.  Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000 , 2011, Nature.

[12]  G. Hegerl,et al.  Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model simulations , 2007 .

[13]  D. Stone,et al.  Testing the Clausius–Clapeyron constraint on changes in extreme precipitation under CO2 warming , 2007 .

[14]  H. Y. Mok,et al.  Scaling and trends of hourly precipitation extremes in two different climate zones – Hong Kong and the Netherlands , 2011 .

[15]  Corinne Le Quéré,et al.  Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis , 2013 .

[16]  S. Kanae,et al.  Global Hydrological Cycles and World Water Resources , 2006, Science.

[17]  S. Kanae,et al.  A 59-year (1948-2006) global near-surface meteorological data set for land surface models. Part I: Development of daily forcing and assessment of precipitation intensity , 2008 .

[18]  S. Hagemann,et al.  Heavy rain intensity distributions on varying time scales and at different temperatures , 2010 .

[19]  P. O'Gorman,et al.  The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change , 2009, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.