Global land-use changes from 1860 to 1980 and future projections to 2500

Abstract Geographic information about historical and possible future land-use changes is necessary for various kinds of ecological models. Introduced here is a global scenario which is regionalized on a 2.5° grid. The scenario consists of two parts. One part is historical pertaining to the period 1860–1980. It is based on available data concerning site and area of land-use changes. In contrast, the second part of the scenario includes a probability estimate for land-use development and distribution for the assumed period, 1981–2500. Here, on grid-element level, clearings occur due to logistic functions. The turning point for each logistic function is calculated by the global clearing function. The sequence in which the grid elements are cleared is determined by clearing probability. This is the product of four individual probability factors: the intensity of land use in neighbouring grid elements, natural productivity, soil fertility, and historical land-use changes.