Space-time modeling with long-memory dependence: assessing Ireland's wind-power resource. Technical report

The Irish government has, in recent years, been considering the possibility of using wind energy to meet a significant portion of Ireland's energy needs. This paper describes a project aimed at developing methods for the evaluation of Ireland's wind-power resource. The authors consider estimation of the long-term average power output from a wind-turbine generator at a site for which little data on wind speeds is available. Long-term records of wind speeds at the twelve synoptic meteorological stations are also used. Inference is based on a simple and parsimonious approximating model that accounts for the main features of wind speeds in Ireland, namely seasonal effects, spatial correlation, short-memory temporal autocorrelation, and long-memory temporal dependence. It syntheses deseasonalisation, kriging, ARMA modelling, and fractional differencing in a natural way. A simple kriging estimator performs well as a point estimator, and good interval estimators result from the model. The resulting procedure is easy to apply in practice.

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