Calibration and information in expert resolution; a classical approach

A classical approach to expert resolution is presented using the concepts of calibration and information. Methodological problems with calibration measurements are brought to light and solutions are proposed. An experiment is described in which this approach is shown to have descriptive value.

[1]  W. Dixon,et al.  Introduction to Mathematical Statistics. , 1964 .

[2]  Roger M. Cooke,et al.  Statistics in Expert Resolution: A Theory of Weights for Combining Expert Opinion , 1990 .

[3]  A. H. Murphy A New Vector Partition of the Probability Score , 1973 .

[4]  R. L. Winkler Scoring Rules and the Evaluation of Probability Assessors , 1969 .

[5]  J. E. Selvidge,et al.  ASSESSING THE EXTREMES OF PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS BY THE FRACTILE METHOD , 1980 .

[6]  David Lindley The Improvement of Probability Judgements , 1982 .

[7]  J. B. Wallace,et al.  A STUDY OF THE PERFORMANCE OF SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY ASSESSORS , 1974 .

[8]  Peter A. Morris,et al.  Decision Analysis Expert Use , 1974 .

[9]  C. E. Agnew Multiple Probability Assessments by Dependent Experts , 1985 .

[10]  J. Michael Harrison Independence and Calibration in Decision Analysis , 1977 .

[11]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[12]  S. Lichtenstein,et al.  Do those who know more also know more about how much they know?*1 , 1977 .

[13]  Joan E. Sieber,et al.  Effects of decision importance on ability to generate warranted subjective uncertainty. , 1974 .

[14]  Stephen E. Fienberg,et al.  The Comparison and Evaluation of Forecasters. , 1983 .

[15]  Christian Genest,et al.  Modeling Expert Judgments for Bayesian Updating , 1985 .

[16]  B. Fischhoff,et al.  Calibration of probabilities: the state of the art to 1980 , 1982 .

[17]  M. Degroot,et al.  Comparing Probability Forecasters: Basic Binary Concepts and Multivariate Extensions , 1983 .

[18]  W. W. Daniel Applied Nonparametric Statistics , 1979 .

[19]  H. Raiffa,et al.  Judgment under uncertainty: A progress report on the training of probability assessors , 1982 .

[20]  Peter A. Morris,et al.  Combining Expert Judgments: A Bayesian Approach , 1977 .

[21]  G. Brier VERIFICATION OF FORECASTS EXPRESSED IN TERMS OF PROBABILITY , 1950 .

[22]  P. A. Adams,et al.  Realism of confidence judgments. , 1961, Psychological review.