Comparison of actual and predicted energy savings in Minnesota gas-heated single-family homes

Data available from a recent evaluation of a home energy audit program in Minnesota are sufficient to allow analysis of the actual energy savings achieved in audited homes and of the relationship between actual and predicted savings. The program, operated by Northern States Power in much of the southern half of the state, is part of Minnesota's version of the federal Residential Conservation Service. NSP conducted almost 12 thousand RCS audits between April 1981 (when the progam began) and the end of 1982. The data analyzed here, available for 346 homes that obtained an NSP energy audit, include monthly natural gas bills from October 1980 through April 1983; heating degree day data matched to the gas bills; energy audit reports; and information on household demographics, structure characteristics, and recent conservation actions from mail and telephone surveys. The actual reduction in weather-adjusted natural gas use between years 1 and 3 averaged 19 MBtu across these homes (11% of preprogram consumption); the median value of the saving was 16 MBtu/year. The variation in actual saving is quite large: gas consumption increased in almost 20% of the homes, while gas consumption decreased by more than 50 MBtu/year in more than 10% of the more » homes. These households reported an average expenditure of almost $1600 for the retrofit measures installed in their homes; the variation in retrofit cost, while large, was not as great as the variation in actual natural gas savings. « less