Statistical model of operational casualty rate in mountain offensive operation

Objective:To set up a statistical model of operational casualty rate in mountain offensive operation and to provide a basis for further simulation study.Methods:Empirical data were extracted from operational corps in historical operations and the daily casualty rate was computed. Kolmogorov_Smirnov tests were applied to analyzing the goodness of fit. The time series models were set up with Box_Jenkins method.Results:The statistical distribution of operational daily casualty rate was best fitting with gamma distribution. The appropriate time series model was ARIMA(0,1,1).Conclusions:ARIMA model can precisely reflect the characteristics of operational daily casualty rate.