论文信息 - The prediction of science indicators using information theory

The prediction of science indicators using information theory

The study discusses the application of various forms of time series analysis to national performance data for EEC countries and the US. First, it is shown that at the aggregated level, a straightforward relation exists between output and input, which varies with time. Various analytical techniques to account for the time factor are discussed. By using information theory, a simple formula can be derived which gives the best prediction for the following year's data. Subsequently, this model is extended to multi-variate forecasting of distributions. Additionally, it can be shown by using this method that in terms of percentage of world share of publications the hypothesis that the EEC develops as a single publication system has to be rejected. However, when co-authorship relations among EEC member countries are used as an indicator, the predominance of a system is suggested.

Loet Leydesdorff | L. Leydesdorff

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