Team Performance Prediction in Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games (MMORPGs)

In this study, we propose a comprehensive performance management tool for measuring and reporting operational activities of game players. This study uses performance data of game players in EverQuest II, a popular MMORPG developed by Sony Online Entertainment, to build performance prediction models for game players. The prediction models provide a projection of player’s future performance based on his past performance, which is expected to be a useful addition to existing player performance monitoring tools. First, we show that variations of PECOTA [2] and MARCEL [3], two most popular baseball home run prediction methods, can be used for game player performance prediction. Second, we evaluate the effects of varying lengths of past performance and show that past performance can be a good predictor of future performance up to a certain degree. Third, we show that game players do not regress towards the mean and that prediction models built on buckets using discretization based on binning and histograms lead to higher prediction coverage.

[1]  J. L. C. Macaskill,et al.  Production-Line Balances for Mixed-Model Lines , 1972 .

[2]  J. Schilder,et al.  Work teams boost productivity , 1992 .

[3]  Etienne Wenger,et al.  Situated Learning: Legitimate Peripheral Participation , 1991 .

[4]  P. Osterman.  How Common is Workplace Transformation and Who Adopts it? , 1994 .

[5]  Nick T. Thomopoulos,et al.  Mixed Model Line Balancing with Smoothed Station Assignments , 1970 .

[6]  Soumen Ghosh,et al.  A comprehensive literature review and analysis of the design, balancing and scheduling of assembly systems , 1989 .

[7]  A. Chakravarty,et al.  Balancing Mixed Model Lines with In-Process Inventories , 1985 .

[8]  Yash P. Gupta,et al.  EXCELLENCE AT ROHM AND HAAS KENTUCKY: A CASE STUDY OF WORK‐TEAM INTRODUCTION IN MANUFACTURING , 2009 .

[9]  Scott E. Caplan,et al.  Can You Hear Me Now? The Impact of Voice in an Online Gaming Community , 2007 .

[10]  James Paul Gee,et al.  话语分析入门 : 理论与方法 = An introduction to discourse analysis : theory and method , 1999 .

[11]  Rajiv D. Banker,et al.  Impact of Work Teams on Manufacturing Performance: A Longitudinal Field Study , 1996 .

[12]  M. Safizadeh.  The Case of Workgroups in Manufacturing Operations , 1991 .

[13]  Ilker Baybars,et al.  A survey of exact algorithms for the simple assembly line balancing , 1986 .

[14]  Jon R. Katzenbach,et al.  The Wisdom of Teams: Creating the High-Performance Organization , 1992 .

[15]  C. Granger,et al.  Can we improve the perceived quality of economic forecasts , 1996 .

[16]  Jaideep Srivastava,et al.  Inferring Player Rating from Performance Data in Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games (MMORPGs) , 2009, 2009 International Conference on Computational Science and Engineering.

[17]  James Paul Gee,et al.  What video games have to teach us about learning and literacy , 2007, CIE.

[18]  GeeJames Paul.  What video games have to teach us about learning and literacy , 2003 .

[19]  G Grzegorz Reyman.  Design of assembly systems , 1987 .

[20]  Dean Tjosvold,et al.  Team Organization: An Enduring Competitive Advantage , 1991 .

[21]  R. Kaplan.  Measuring manufacturing performance: a new challenge for managerial accounting research , 1983 .

[22]  Joel Cutcher-Gershenfeld.  Tracing a Transformation in Industrial Relations. The Case of Xerox Corporation and the Amalgamated Clothing and Textile Workers Union. , 1988 .

[23]  Joseph H. Boyett,et al.  Workplace 2000 : the revolution reshaping American business , 1991 .

[24]  Dmitri Williams,et al.  Groups and Goblins: The Social and Civic Impact of an Online Game , 2006 .

[25]  Jaideep Srivastava,et al.  Player Performance Prediction in Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games (MMORPGs) , 2010, PAKDD.

[26]  Alden Solovy.  Same ol' same ol'. , 2003, Hospitals & health networks.

[27]  Yuan Gao,et al.  Appeal of online computer games: a user perspective , 2004, Electron. Libr..