The application of the random regret minimization model to drivers' choice of crash avoidance maneuvers

This study explores the plausibility of regret minimization as behavioral paradigm underlying the choice of crash avoidance maneuvers. Alternatively to previous studies that considered utility maximization, this study applies the random regret minimization (RRM) model while assuming that drivers seek to minimize their anticipated regret from their corrective actions. The model accounts for driver attributes and behavior, critical events that made the crash imminent, vehicle and road characteristics, and environmental conditions. Analyzed data are retrieved from the General Estimates System (GES) crash database for the period between 2005 and 2009. The predictive ability of the RRM-based model is slightly superior to its RUM-based counterpart, namely the multinomial logit model (MNL) model. The marginal effects predicted by the RRM-based model are greater than those predicted by the RUM-based model, suggesting that both models should serve as a basis for evaluating crash scenarios and driver warning systems.

[1]  T. Arentze,et al.  A Random Regret-Minimization model of travel choice , 2008 .

[2]  Xuedong Yan,et al.  Exploring precrash maneuvers using classification trees and random forests. , 2009, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[3]  Mattias Bengtsson,et al.  Collision Warning with Full Auto Brake and Pedestrian Detection - a practical example of Automatic Emergency Braking , 2010, 13th International IEEE Conference on Intelligent Transportation Systems.

[4]  Birgitta Falk,et al.  Developing traffic safety interventions from conceptions of risks and accidents , 2007 .

[5]  Caspar G. Chorus,et al.  Random Regret-based Discrete Choice Modeling: A Tutorial , 2012 .

[6]  Xuedong Yan,et al.  Analyses of Factors of Crash Avoidance Maneuvers Using the General Estimates System , 2008, Traffic injury prevention.

[7]  Timo Juhani Lajunen,et al.  Social psychology of seat belt use: A comparison of theory of planned behavior and health belief model , 2008 .

[8]  W. Greene,et al.  Random regret minimization or random utility maximization: An exploratory analysis in the context of automobile fuel choice , 2013 .

[9]  Cristy Ho,et al.  Assessing the effectiveness of "intuitive" vibrotactile warning signals in preventing front-to-rear-end collisions in a driving simulator. , 2006, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[10]  Aidan Feeney,et al.  The development of regret. , 2012, Journal of experimental child psychology.

[11]  M. Conner,et al.  Identifying the psychological determinants of risky riding: an application of an extended Theory of Planned Behaviour. , 2012, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[12]  Denis J. Hilton,et al.  Hot as hell! The self-conscious nature of action regrets ☆ , 2011 .

[13]  Carlo Giacomo Prato,et al.  Braking News , 2012 .

[14]  Avinash Unnikrishnan,et al.  Analysis of large truck crash severity using heteroskedastic ordered probit models. , 2011, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[15]  Shin-Yuan Hung,et al.  Regret avoidance as a measure of DSS success: An exploratory study , 2005, Decis. Support Syst..

[16]  Will Murray,et al.  Factors predicting intentions to speed in a work and personal vehicle , 2004 .

[17]  Naveen Eluru,et al.  A joint econometric analysis of seat belt use and crash-related injury severity. , 2007, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[18]  Jessica S Jermakian,et al.  Crash avoidance potential of four passenger vehicle technologies. , 2011, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[19]  Carlo Giacomo Prato,et al.  Associating Crash Avoidance Maneuvers With Driver Attributes and Accident Characteristics: A Mixed Logit Model Approach , 2012, Traffic injury prevention.

[20]  Marcel Zeelenberg,et al.  A Theory of Regret Regulation 1.0 , 2007 .

[21]  Ioni M. Lewis,et al.  Walking when intoxicated : an investigation of the factors which influence individuals' drink walking intentions , 2012 .

[22]  R. Sugden,et al.  Regret Theory: An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty Review of Economic Studies , 1982 .

[23]  Mark A. Elliott,et al.  The social cognitive determinants of offending drivers' speeding behaviour. , 2010, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[24]  R. Sugden,et al.  Some implications of a more general form of regret theory , 1987 .

[25]  Caspar G. Chorus,et al.  Random Regret Minimization: An Overview of Model Properties and Empirical Evidence , 2012 .

[26]  Denise R. Beike,et al.  When experienced regret refuses to fade : Regrets of action and attempting to forget open life regrets , 2008 .

[27]  Gudmundur F. Ulfarsson,et al.  A note on modeling pedestrian-injury severity in motor-vehicle crashes with the mixed logit model. , 2010, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[28]  C. Chorus.  A New Model of Random Regret Minimization , 2010, European Journal of Transport and Infrastructure Research.

[29]  Linda Ng Boyle,et al.  The influence of driver distraction on the severity of injuries sustained by teenage drivers and their passengers. , 2008, Accident; analysis and prevention.

[30]  S. Washington,et al.  Statistical and Econometric Methods for Transportation Data Analysis , 2010 .