Atmospheric 14C Variations: A Bayesian Prospect

The time spectrum of variations in the atmospheric radiocarbon inventory is reviewed. According to conventional analysis (discrete Fourier transform, periodogram, and maximum entropy or MEM), the spectrum is characterized by features at ~ 2200, 900, 700, 207, 149, and 88 years as well possibly at other frequencies. Model fitting of sinusoids using the Bretthorst algorithm confirms most of these and places their periods on a more secure basis. The forcings of the spectral features are known to be seated in some combination of ocean-atmosphere interaction, the Sun, and the terrestrial magnetic field, but some specific line assignments are still regarded as tentative.

[1]  H. Suess Secular Variations of Cosmogenic 14C on Earth: Their Discovery and Interpretation , 1986, Radiocarbon.

[2]  J. Duplessy,et al.  Paleoclimatic variability at frequencies ranging from 1 cycle per 10 000 years to 1 cycle per 1000 years: Evidence for nonlinear behaviour of the climate system , 1988 .

[3]  M. Stuiver,et al.  Changes in Atmospheric Carbon-14 Attributed to a Variable Sun , 1980, Science.

[4]  H. Oeschger,et al.  Reservoir models and production rate variations of natural radiocarbon , 1973 .

[5]  H. Suess La Jolla Measurements of Radiocarbon in Tree-Ring Dated Wood , 1978, Radiocarbon.

[6]  P. Damon,et al.  Geomagnetic-Heliomagnetic Modulation of Atmospheric Radiocarbon Production , 1986, Radiocarbon.

[7]  P. Damon Production and Decay of Radiocarbon and its Modulation by Geomagnetic Field-Solar Activity Changes with Possible Implications for Global Environment , 1988 .

[8]  R. Bracewell The Fourier Transform and Its Applications , 1966 .

[9]  H. Suess CLIMATIC CHANGES, SOLAR ACTIVITY, AND THE COSMIC-RAY PRODUCTION RATE OF NATURAL RADIOCARBON. , 1968 .

[10]  Karl K. Turekian,et al.  The Late Cenozoic glacial ages , 1971 .

[11]  J. W. Winchester Solar-Terrestrial Relationships and the Earth Environment in the Last Millennia: G.C. Castagnoli. North-Holland Physics Publishing, Elsevier Science Publishers, 1988, 450p., US $136.75 (ISBN 0-444-87034-2) , 1990 .

[12]  G. Siscoe Evidence in the auroral record for secular solar variability , 1980 .

[13]  M. S. Matthews,et al.  The sun in time , 1991 .

[14]  J. Wallace,et al.  Empirical Orthogonal Representation of Time Series in the Frequency Domain. Part I: Theoretical Considerations , 1972 .

[15]  P. Abelson Researches in geochemistry , 1961 .

[16]  W. Elsasser,et al.  Cosmic-Ray Intensity and Geomagnetism , 1956, Nature.

[17]  B. Kromer,et al.  Extension of the Holocene Dendrochronology by the Preboreal Pine Series, 8800 to 10,100 BP , 1986, Radiocarbon.

[18]  M. McElhinny,et al.  Variations in the Geomagnetic Dipole 1: The Past 50, 000 Years , 1982 .

[19]  Richard B. Firestone,et al.  Table of Isotopes , 1978 .

[20]  Marvin H. J. Guber Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and Parameter Estimation , 1988 .

[21]  D. Gough,et al.  The Solar Spoon , 1972, Nature.

[22]  M. Stuiver,et al.  High-Precision Calibration of the Radiocarbon Time Scale, AD 1950–500 BC , 1986, Radiocarbon.

[23]  C. W. Ferguson,et al.  High-Precision Radiocarbon Dating of Bristlecone Pine from 6554 to 5350 BC , 1986, Radiocarbon.

[24]  A. Wolfendale,et al.  Secular solar and geomagnetic variations in the last 10,000 years. Proceedings at the NATO Advanced Research Workshop, held at Durham, England, 6 - 10 April 1987. , 1988 .

[25]  G. L. Bretthorst,et al.  AN INTRODUCTION TO PARAMETER ESTIMATION USING BAYESIAN PROBABILITY THEORY , 1990 .

[26]  M. Galli,et al.  Long and Short Cycles in Solar Activity During the Last Millennia , 1988 .

[27]  M. Stuiver Carbon-14 Content of 18th- and 19th-Century Wood: Variations Correlated with Sunspot Activity , 1965, Science.

[28]  M. Stuiver VARIATIONS IN RADIOCARBON CONCENTRATION AND SUNSPOT ACTIVITY , 1961 .

[29]  H. Suess The Radiocarbon Record in Tree Rings of the Last 8000 Years , 1980, Radiocarbon.

[30]  C. Sonett,et al.  The spectrum of radiocarbon , 1990, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A, Mathematical and Physical Sciences.

[31]  E. T. Jaynes,et al.  Papers on probability, statistics and statistical physics , 1983 .

[32]  C. Sonett Very long solar periods and the radiocarbon record , 1984 .

[33]  W. Dansgaard,et al.  Climatic Oscillations 1200–2000 AD , 1970, Nature.

[34]  C. P. Sonett,et al.  Correlation of bristlecone pine ring widths with atmospheric 14C variations: a climate–Sun relation , 1984, Nature.

[35]  D. Linden A Discussion of Sampling Theorems , 1959, Proceedings of the IRE.

[36]  Taro Takahashi,et al.  Climate processes and climate sensitivity , 1984 .

[37]  C. Sonett Multirate Sampling and Generalized Alias as a Source of Errors in Magnetometer Experiments , 1968 .

[38]  H. Oeschger,et al.  Secular non-random variations of cosmogenic carbon-14 in the terrestrial atmosphere , 1981 .

[39]  Niels Reeh,et al.  Dating of Greenland Ice Cores by Flow Models, Isotopes, Volcanic Debris, and Continental Dust , 1978, Journal of Glaciology.

[40]  P. Damon,et al.  Temporal Fluctuations of Atmospheric 14C: Causal Factors and Implications , 1978 .