Asymptotic Optimality of Certain Multihypothesis Sequential Tests: Non‐i.i.d. Case

It is known that certain combinations of one‐sided sequential probability ratio tests are asymptotically optimal (relative to the expected sample size) for problems involving a finite number of possible distributions when probabilities of errors tend to zero and observations are independent and identically distributed according to one of the underlying distributions. The objective of this paper is to show that two specific constructions of sequential tests asymptotically minimize not only the expected time of observation but also any positive moment of the stopping time distribution under fairly general conditions for a finite number of simple hypotheses. This result appears to be true for general statistical models which include correlated and non‐homogeneous processes observed either in discrete or continuous time. For statistical problems with nuisance parameters, we consider invariant sequential tests and show that the same result is valid for this case. Finally, we apply general results to the solution of several particular problems such as a multi‐sample slippage problem for correlated Gaussian processes and for statistical models with nuisance parameters.

[1]  R. Khas'minskii,et al.  Sequential Testing for Several Signals in Gaussian White Noise , 1984 .

[2]  H. Chernoff Sequential Design of Experiments , 1959 .

[3]  Gary Lorden,et al.  Integrated Risk of Asymptotically Bayes Sequential Tests , 1967 .

[4]  Gerald S. Rogers,et al.  Mathematical Statistics: A Decision Theoretic Approach , 1967 .

[5]  Walter T. Federer,et al.  Sequential Design of Experiments , 1967 .

[6]  R. Khan,et al.  Sequential Tests of Statistical Hypotheses. , 1972 .

[7]  V P Dragalin Asymptotic solution of a problem of detecting a signal from k channels , 1987 .

[8]  Iu. G. Sosulin Theory of detection and estimation of stochastic signals , 1978 .

[9]  Alexander G. Tartakovsky MINIMAX INVARIANT REGRET SOLUTION TO THE N-SAMPLE SLIPPAGE PROBLEM , 1997 .

[10]  Alʹbert Nikolaevich Shiri︠a︡ev,et al.  Statistics of random processes , 1977 .

[11]  J. Biggins Testing Statistical Hypotheses , 1988 .

[12]  Termination, Moments and Exponential Boundedness of the Stopping Rule for Certain Invariant Sequential Probability Ratio Tests , 1975 .

[13]  H Robbins,et al.  Complete Convergence and the Law of Large Numbers. , 1947, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

[14]  Exponentially Bounded Stopping Time of Sequential Probability Ratio Tests for Composite Hypotheses , 1971 .

[15]  E. Lehmann Testing Statistical Hypotheses , 1960 .

[16]  David R. Cox,et al.  Sequential tests for composite hypotheses , 1952, Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society.

[17]  J. Kiefer,et al.  Asymptotically Optimum Sequential Inference and Design , 1963 .

[18]  Tze Leung Lai,et al.  On $r$-Quick Convergence and a Conjecture of Strassen , 1976 .

[19]  Alexander G. Tartakovsky Asymptotically optimal sequential tests for nonhomogeneous processes , 1998 .

[20]  T. Lai,et al.  Some one-sided theorems on the tail distribution of sample sums with applications to the last time and largest excess of boundary crossings , 1975 .

[21]  N. V. Verdenskaya,et al.  Asymptotically Optimal Sequential Testing of Multiple Hypotheses for Nonhomogeneous Gaussian Processes in Asymmetric Case , 1992 .

[22]  I. Pavlov Sequential Procedure of Testing Composite Hypotheses with Applications to the Kiefer–Weiss Problem , 1991 .

[23]  T. Lai Asymptotic Optimality of Invariant Sequential Probability Ratio Tests , 1981 .

[24]  Volker Strassen,et al.  Almost sure behavior of sums of independent random variables and martingales , 1967 .

[25]  P. Armitage Sequential Analysis with More than Two Alternative Hypotheses, and its Relation to Discriminant Function Analysis , 1950 .

[26]  G. Lorden Nearly-optimal sequential tests for finitely many parameter values , 1977 .