Calculation Model for Stick–Slip Deformation in Weak Horizontal Structural Surface Formation after Water Inflow

In the process of reservoir exploration, the weak horizontal structural surface easily slips and cracks, and casing shearing often occurs during the formation process, which significantly affects the economic viability and effective development of an oilfield. Additionally, repeated damage at the same casing position indicates the possibility of numerous cracks in the weak structural surface. In this study, we propose the geomechanical stick–slip theory to verify the above phenomenon. The stress calculation method for the weak horizontal structural surface in the upper part of the reservoir is devised under the influence of inter-regional pore pressure differences. Based on the process of accumulation–release–reaccumulation–rerelease in the formation and deformation processes, we construct the calculation model of shear stress release and slips on the cracked surface. While considering the influence of water inflow on the cracked surface, the pressure exerted on the formation stick–slip is analyzed. Then, the model was verified by the data of block X in the Daqing oilfield. The results demonstrate that under wet conditions, the maximum static and dynamic frictional stresses on the cracked surface decrease significantly, and this makes the cracked surface more prone to a greater slip degree. After the weak horizontal structural surface cracks and slips occur for the first time, the pressure difference between regions required for formation of the next slip decreases significantly. With the continuous formation of slips, the slip range gradually expands with an increase in inter-regional pressure variance. The research work in this study provides a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of casing damage in oil development zones.