Performance prediction model for Swedish construction projects

Construction projects tend to be influenced by interrelated issues that can result in unexpected costs or time overrun. Therefore, a need is highlighted by the industry as well as in the literature, to develop predictive models, that can aid in decision-making and guidance for corrective action throughout the development and implementation of construction projects. Performance in construction projects are often measured by key performance indicators. It is assumed that project performance is influenced by project attributes, external factors and the project organization. In this report, a previously made survey, that includes data from Swedish construction projects is analysed to find the most influential factors behind project performance, so that performance not only can be improved, but also predicted. The study that is analysed in this research includes answers from 324 main contractor representatives and 256 clients that participated in the survey in 2014. It includes answers about project attributes, external factors, the project organisation, cost and time for the projects as well as satisfaction of the client and the contractor. First, a literature review, that covers theory about project management success in construction projects is carried out. Thereafter, a statistical correlation method is used to extract the features that are strongly correlated with three performance indicators: cost variance, time variance and client- and contractor satisfaction. A regression analysis is thereafter done in order to develop a model for predicting project cost, time and satisfaction. The result is an identification of the most correlating factors for project performance. The conclusion that can be made is that, although external factors and technical aspects of a building are important for project success, for example, project technical complexity, the use of blasting work or amount of prefabrication, the most recurring factors behind project performance can be derived to human related factors. Human related factors in the project life cycle are of high impact, such as the client role, the architect performance and collaboration throughout the stages of projects. These are also the factors that are most suitable for predicting if a construction project will be successful or not.