The effect of weather and temporal variations on calls for police service

Examines the effect of weather and temporal factors on the total calls for service (CFS) at the Minneapolis Police Department. Aims at the eventual development of an instrument to predict short‐term variations in CFS over time ‐ a goal which at present is unique. Finds that CFS increase at times when individuals have less habitual routine activities, e.g. after dark; during vacation months. Suggests that temporal factors have much more impact than the weather. Points out some practical implications for the criminal justice system, e.g., future schedules can be adjusted for temporal variations, thus helping in the deployment of officers. Shows that accurate prediction of the overall number of CFS is possible when temporal and weather factors are used.

[1]  R. Michael,et al.  An annual rhythm in the battering of women. , 1986, The American journal of psychiatry.

[2]  R. Page,et al.  Environmental Influences on Aggression: The Effects of Darkness and Proximity of Victim , 1976 .

[3]  R. Clarke,et al.  Modeling Offenders' Decisions: A Framework for Research and Policy , 1985, Crime and Justice.

[4]  Ronald V. Clarke,et al.  Designing out crime , 1980 .

[5]  Steven P. Lab,et al.  Climatological conditions and crime: The forecast is…? , 1988 .

[6]  Menachem Amir Patterns in Forcible Rape , 1971 .

[7]  Patrick R. Gartin,et al.  Hot Spots of Predatory Crime: Routine Activities and the Criminology of Place , 1989 .

[8]  Robert A. Baron,et al.  Aggression and Heat: The Mediating Role of Negative Affect , 1976 .

[9]  K. Harries,et al.  Heat and Violence: New Findings from Dallas Field Data, 1980-1981 , 1988 .

[10]  Keith D. Harries,et al.  Determinism Revisited , 1983 .

[11]  F. Goodwin,et al.  Seasonal affective disorder. A description of the syndrome and preliminary findings with light therapy. , 1984, Archives of general psychiatry.

[12]  C. Anderson,et al.  Ambient temperature and violent crime: tests of the linear and curvilinear hypotheses. , 1984, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[13]  P. Bell,et al.  Aggression and heat: the influence of ambient temperature, negative affect, and a cooling drink on physical aggression. , 1976, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[14]  F. Heider,et al.  Principles of topological psychology , 1936 .

[15]  H S Feldman,et al.  Factors influencing criminal behavior in Newark: a local study in forensic psychiatry. , 1979, Journal of forensic sciences.

[16]  S. Field Trends in Crime and Their Interpretation: A Study of Recorded Crime in Post War England and Wales , 1990 .

[17]  R. Michael,et al.  Sexual violence in the United States and the role of season. , 1983, The American journal of psychiatry.

[18]  P. Bell,et al.  Aggression and heat: mediating effects of prior provocation and exposure to an aggressive model. , 1975, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[19]  D. Olweus The causes of crime: Testosterone and adrenaline: aggressive antisocial behavior in normal adolescent males , 1987 .

[20]  R. Lyman Ott.,et al.  An introduction to statistical methods and data analysis , 1977 .

[21]  Gerhard J. Falk,et al.  The Influence of the Seasons on the Crime Rate , 1952 .

[22]  C. Anderson,et al.  Temperature and aggression: effects on quarterly, yearly, and city rates of violent and nonviolent crime. , 1987, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[23]  A. Lieber,et al.  Homicides and the lunar cycle: toward a theory of lunar influence on human emotional disturbance. , 1972, The American journal of psychiatry.

[24]  Josephus Daniel Perry,et al.  Violent Crimes in a City , 1987 .

[25]  R. Baron,et al.  Aggression as a function of ambient temperature and prior anger arousal. , 1972, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[26]  Ellen G. Cohn,et al.  THE PREDICTION OF POLICE CALLS FOR SERVICE: THE INFLUENCE OF WEATHER AND TEMPORAL VARIABLES ON RAPE AND DOMESTIC VIOLENCE , 1993 .

[27]  Cleveland Abbe,et al.  Weather Influences: an Empirical Study of the Mental and Physiological Effects of Definite Meteorological Conditions , 1905, Nature.

[28]  D. Schalling The causes of crime: Personality correlates of plasma testosterone levels in young delinquents: an example of person–situation interaction? , 1987 .

[29]  Marvin E. Wolfgang,et al.  Patterns in Criminal Homicide , 1958 .

[30]  J. Neter,et al.  Applied Linear Regression Models , 1983 .

[31]  J. Rotton,et al.  Air pollution, weather, and violent crimes: concomitant time-series analysis of archival data. , 1985, Journal of personality and social psychology.

[32]  T. Wehr,et al.  Seasonality and affective illness. , 1989, The American journal of psychiatry.

[33]  D. R. Heise Employing Nominal Variables, Induced Variables, and Block Variables in Path Analyses , 1972 .

[34]  T. Moffitt,et al.  The Causes of Crime: New Biological Approaches , 1987 .

[35]  Elizabeth Miller,et al.  The Effects of the Full Moon on Human Behavior , 1976 .

[36]  J. Rotton,et al.  Much ado about the full moon: a meta-analysis of lunar-lunacy research. , 1985, Psychological bulletin.

[37]  Lawrence E. Cohen,et al.  Social Change and Crime Rate Trends: A Routine Activity Approach , 1979 .

[38]  Jocelyn Calvert,et al.  Toward a Thermoregulatory Model of Violence , 1981 .

[39]  John L. Cotton,et al.  Ambient Temperature and Violent Crime1 , 1986 .

[40]  Robert A. Baron,et al.  Environmental influences on aggression: The facilitation of modeling effects by high ambient temperatures , 1972 .

[41]  James L. Lebeau,et al.  Changes in calls for police service with changes in routine activities and the arrival and passage of weather fronts , 1990 .