The Complex Relationship between Forecast Skill and Forecast Value: A Real-World Analysis

Abstract For routine forecasts of temperature and precipitation, the relative skill advantage of human forecasters with respect to the numerical–statistical guidance is small (and diminishing). Since the relationship between forecast skill and the value of those forecasts is complex, the authors have examined their value across a range of real-world user contexts. It is found that although in most cases the meteorological information possessed considerable value to the users, human intervention in making those forecasts (as measured by National Weather Service forecasts) has generally led to minimal gains in value beyond that which is obtainable through direct use of numerical–statistical guidance. An important exception is the use of meteorological information by gas utilities during peak wintertime periods; in those circumstances, the value of human intervention was considerable. The presence of information in the National Weather Service forecasts independent of that contained in the numerical–statisti...