Group-based judgmental forecasting: An integration of extant knowledge and the development of priorities for a new research agenda

[1]  Ilan Yaniv,et al.  Group diversity and decision quality: Amplification and attenuation of the framing effect , 2011 .

[2]  Jon Barrutia,et al.  People consultation to construct the future: A Delphi application , 2011 .

[3]  Gordon M. Hickey,et al.  A virtual and anonymous, deliberative and analytic participation process for planning and evaluation: The Concept Mapping Policy Delphi , 2011 .

[4]  Tim C. E. Engels,et al.  The predictive validity of peer review: A selective review of the judgmental forecasting qualities of peers, and implications for innovation in science , 2011 .

[5]  N. Kerr,et al.  Group-based forecasting?: A social psychological analysis , 2011 .

[6]  Van Swol,et al.  Forecasting another’s enjoyment versus giving the right answer: Trust, shared values, task effects, and confidence in improving the acceptance of advice , 2011 .

[7]  Michael Lawrence,et al.  Influence of differentiated roles on group forecasting accuracy , 2011 .

[8]  Albert E. Mannes,et al.  Judgmental aggregation strategies depend on whether the self is involved , 2011 .

[9]  E. Jonas,et al.  Forecasting clients' reactions: How does the perception of strategic behavior influence the acceptance of advice? , 2011 .

[10]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  University of Pennsylvania Scholarlycommons Comparing Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task Comparing Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delphi and Prediction Markets on an Estimation Task Comparing Face-to-face Meetings, Nominal Groups, Delph , 2022 .

[11]  George Cairns,et al.  Problematizing international business futures through a 'critical scenario method' , 2010 .

[12]  George Wright,et al.  The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events , 2010 .

[13]  P. Goodwin,et al.  Decision making and planning under low levels of predictability: enhancing the scenario method , 2009 .

[14]  J. Scott Armstrong,et al.  Role thinking: Standing in other people’s shoes to forecast decisions in conflicts , 2009 .

[15]  Thomas A. Rietz,et al.  Prediction market accuracy in the long run , 2008 .

[16]  George Wright,et al.  Enhancing foresight between multiple agencies: Issues in the use of scenario thinking to overcome fragmentation , 2006 .

[17]  Vicky Arnold,et al.  The Differential Use and Effect of Knowledge-Based System Explanations in Novice and Expert Judgement Decisions , 2006, MIS Q..

[18]  Kesten C. Green Game theory, simulated interaction, and unaided judgement for forecasting decisions in conflicts: further evidence , 2005 .

[19]  G. Rowe,et al.  A Typology of Public Engagement Mechanisms , 2005 .

[20]  Winston R. Sieck,et al.  The recalcitrance of overconfidence and its contribution to decision aid neglect , 2005 .

[21]  George Wright,et al.  The Sixth Sense: Accelerating Organizational Learning with Scenarios , 2002 .

[22]  George Wright,et al.  Game theory, game theorists, university students, role-playing and forecasting ability , 2002 .

[23]  Kesten C. Green,et al.  Forecasting Decisions in Conflict Situations: A Comparison of Game Theory, Role-playing, and Unaided Judgement , 2002 .

[24]  John D. Rogers,et al.  Devil's advocate versus authentic dissent: stimulating quantity and quality , 2001 .

[25]  G. Rowe,et al.  Differences in Expert and Lay Judgments of Risk: Myth or Reality? , 2001, Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis.

[26]  Janet A. Sniezek,et al.  Trust, Confidence, and Expertise in a Judge-Advisor System. , 2001, Organizational behavior and human decision processes.

[27]  A. Tversky,et al.  Choices, Values, and Frames , 2000 .

[28]  G. Rowe,et al.  Public Participation Methods: A Framework for Evaluation , 2000 .

[29]  Jerome R. Ravetz,et al.  Risk management and governance:: a post-normal science approach , 1999 .

[30]  George Wright,et al.  The impact of task characteristics on the performance of structured group forecasting techniques , 1996 .

[31]  Thomas Webler,et al.  “Right” Discourse in Citizen Participation: An Evaluative Yardstick , 1995 .

[32]  T. Webler,et al.  Fairness and competence in citizen participation : evaluating models for environmental discourse , 1995 .

[33]  Janet A. Sniezek,et al.  Groups under uncertainty: An examination of confidence in group decision making☆ , 1992 .

[34]  W. Hendee The decline of deference: the political context of risk communication. , 1991, Investigative radiology.

[35]  George Wright,et al.  Delphi: A reevaluation of research and theory , 1991 .

[36]  George Wright,et al.  The Delphi Technique: A Re-Evaluation of Research and Theory , 1991 .

[37]  Paula L. Rechner,et al.  Experiential Effects of Dialectical Inquiry, Devil's Advocacy and Consensus Approaches to Strategic Decision Making , 1989 .

[38]  C. Nemeth,et al.  Modelling courage: The role of dissent in fostering independence. , 1988 .

[39]  Corey Ga,et al.  Applying the acute ischemic heart disease predictive instrument. , 1987 .

[40]  J. Merenstein,et al.  Applying the acute ischemic heart disease predictive instrument. , 1987, The Journal of family practice.

[41]  D. Schweiger,et al.  Group Approaches for Improving Strategic Decision Making: A Comparative Analysis of Dialectical Inquiry, Devil's Advocacy, and Consensus , 1986 .

[42]  A. V. D. Ven,et al.  The Effectiveness of Nominal, Delphi, and Interacting Group Decision Making Processes , 1974 .

[43]  Douglas W. Ehninger,et al.  Toulmin on argument: An interpretation and application , 1960 .