Emerging Firms And The Allocation Of Control Rights: A Bayesian Approach

This paper suggests that founders often use firm formation to exploit opportunities and must sometimes make organizing decisions about the allocation of control before the economic value of the opportunity can reliably be known even probabilistically. Motivated by questions surroundings such settings, we use incomplete contract theory and apply a Bayesian learning model to the allocation process of ownership control rights of founders in emerging firms. This model examines how founders learn and build on their prior beliefs, enabling them to allocate and change ownership control rights under differing conditions of risk and uncertainty.

[1]  D. Mitrany Methodology of the Social Sciences , 1945, Nature.

[2]  S. Robbins The Theory Z Organization from a Power-Control Perspective , 1983 .

[3]  Giovanni Dosi,et al.  The nature and dynamics of organizational capabilities , 2001 .

[4]  Daniel A. Levinthal,et al.  Exploration and Exploitation in Organizational Learning , 2007 .

[5]  A. Tversky,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[6]  Michael D. Ryall,et al.  Subjective Rationality, Self - Confirming Equilibrium, and Corporate Strategy , 2003, Manag. Sci..

[7]  Garry D. Bruton,et al.  Venture Capitalist and CEO Dismissal , 1997 .

[8]  F. Knight The economic nature of the firm: From Risk, Uncertainty, and Profit , 2009 .

[9]  Paul R. Milgrom,et al.  Economics, Organization and Management , 1992 .

[10]  L. Argote Organizational Learning: Creating, Retaining and Transferring Knowledge , 1999 .

[11]  Nigel Wadeson Multi‐dimensional search: choosing the right path , 2004 .

[12]  Rita Gunther McGrath Falling Forward: Real Options Reasoning and Entrepreneurial Failure , 1999 .

[13]  M. Wright,et al.  Entrepreneurial Founder Teams: Factors Associated with Member Entry and Exit , 2003 .

[14]  David M. Waguespack,et al.  Social Networks and Exchange: Self-Confirming Dynamics in Hollywood , 2005 .

[15]  M. Degroot,et al.  Bayesian Analysis and Uncertainty in Economic Theory. , 1986 .

[16]  O. Hart,et al.  Incomplete Contracts and Renegotiation , 1988 .

[17]  E QuinnRobert,et al.  Organizational Life Cycles and Shifting Criteria of Effectiveness , 1983 .

[18]  Mike Wright,et al.  The creation of spin-off firms at public research institutions: Managerial and policy implications , 2005 .

[19]  Clayton M. Christensen Seeing What's Next , 2004 .

[20]  S. Sarasvathy Causation and Effectuation: Toward a Theoretical Shift from Economic Inevitability to Entrepreneurial Contingency , 2001 .

[21]  Martine R. Haas,et al.  Knowledge Gathering, Team Capabilities, and Project Performance in Challenging Work Environments , 2006, Manag. Sci..

[22]  K. Cameron,et al.  Organizational Life Cycles and Shifting Criteria of Effectiveness: Some Preliminary Evidence , 1983 .

[23]  Oliver Hart,et al.  One Share/One Vote and the Market for Corporate Control , 1987 .

[24]  Nicolai J. Foss,et al.  Original and Derived Judgment: An Entrepreneurial Theory of Economic Organization , 2007 .

[25]  S. Shane,et al.  The Promise of Entrepreneurship as a Field of Research , 2000 .

[26]  Christian Schlag Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long‐Term Investors. , 2003 .

[27]  Kathleen M. Eisenhardt,et al.  Making Fast Strategic Decisions In High-Velocity Environments , 1989 .

[28]  T. Baker,et al.  Creating Something from Nothing: Resource Construction through Entrepreneurial Bricolage , 2005 .

[29]  Elizabeth C. Hirschman,et al.  Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases , 1974, Science.

[30]  S. Parker Entrepreneurial learning and the existence of credit markets , 2007 .

[31]  Jay B. Barney,et al.  How Do Entrepreneurs Organize Firms Under Conditions of Uncertainty? , 2005 .

[32]  Lowell W. Busenitz,et al.  Differences between entrepreneurs and managers in large organizations: Biases and heuristics in strategic decision-making , 1997 .

[33]  M. Shubik,et al.  A Behavioral Theory of the Firm. , 1964 .

[34]  David A. Nembhard,et al.  The Effects of Worker Learning, Forgetting, and Heterogeneity on Assembly Line Productivity , 2001, Manag. Sci..

[35]  R. Hogarth,et al.  Decision Making under Ambiguity , 1986 .

[36]  S. C. Myers,et al.  Principles of Corporate Finance - 4/E , 2002 .

[37]  Josh Lerner,et al.  Venture Capitalists and the Oversight of Private Firms , 1995 .

[38]  N. Foss,et al.  Firms, Incomplete Contracts and Organizational Learning , 1996 .

[39]  Mark C. Casson Entrepreneurship and the Theory of the Firm , 2005 .

[40]  Debra C. Rosenthal Imagination and the Nature of Choice , 1980 .

[41]  D. M. Grether,et al.  Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic , 1980 .

[42]  R. Acevedo,et al.  Research report , 1967, Revista odontologica de Puerto Rico.

[43]  O. Williamson,et al.  Markets and Hierarchies: Analysis and Antitrust Implications. , 1977 .

[44]  Rita Gunther McGrath A Real Options Logic for Initiating Technology Positioning Investments , 1997 .

[45]  Stephen F. LeRoy,et al.  Knight on Risk and Uncertainty , 1987, Journal of Political Economy.

[46]  J. Riley,et al.  The analytics of uncertainty and information: Long-run relationships and the credibility of threats and promises , 1992 .

[47]  B. Kogut Joint Ventures and the Option to Expand and Acquire , 1991 .

[48]  G. Huber Organizational Learning: The Contributing Processes and the Literatures , 1991 .

[49]  J. Barney,et al.  Discovery and Creation: Alternative Theories of Entrepreneurial Action , 2007 .

[50]  Elaine Mosakowski,et al.  Strategy Making Under Causal Ambiguity: Conceptual Issues and Empirical Evidence , 1997 .

[51]  A. Tversky,et al.  On the psychology of prediction , 1973 .

[52]  A. Roth,et al.  The Speed of Learning in Noisy Games: Partial Reinforcement and the Sustainability of Cooperation , 2006 .

[53]  D. Nowlan,et al.  Costs and benefits. , 1980, Irish medical journal.

[54]  Marco Battaglini,et al.  Multiple Referrals and Multidimensional Cheap Talk , 2002 .

[55]  L. Joseph,et al.  Bayesian Statistics: An Introduction , 1989 .

[56]  Colin Camerer,et al.  Overconfidence and Excess Entry: An Experimental Approach , 1999 .

[57]  Linda Argote,et al.  Individual Experience and Experience Working Together: Predicting Learning Rates from Knowing Who Knows What and Knowing How to Work Together , 2005, Manag. Sci..

[58]  J. Sobel,et al.  STRATEGIC INFORMATION TRANSMISSION , 1982 .

[59]  H. Demsetz,et al.  Production, Information Costs, and Economic Organization , 1975, IEEE Engineering Management Review.

[60]  Anand Swaminathan,et al.  Turnover Events, Vicarious Information, and the Reduced Likelihood of Outlet-Level Exit Among Small Multiunit Organizations , 2006, Organ. Sci..

[61]  M. Hitt,et al.  International expansion by new venture firms: International diversity, mode of market entry, technological learning, and performance. , 2000 .

[62]  Herbert A. Simon,et al.  The Structure of Ill Structured Problems , 1973, Artif. Intell..

[63]  Carolyn Y. Woo,et al.  Entrepreneurs' perceived chances for success , 1988 .

[64]  Peter J. Buckley,et al.  Firms, Organizations and Contracts: A Reader in Industrial Organization , 1996 .